As a result of all of this, international observers of the upcoming elections in Iraq have lowered their expectations for the poll. Few diplomats in Baghdad now talk of "free and fair elections." Instead, the new publicly stated goal is to have a "credible election"; yet, even that seems doubtful at this point.
On February 23, the Al-Arab newspaper carried an opinion piece by Fadel al-Rubaie. "Political observers are assuring that the post-elections stage will be much more dangerous than the current one (pre-elections) because the conflict will erupt between the different powers and on more than one front," wrote Rubaie before he went on to discuss much of the aforementioned political machinations between the candidates and parties.
For these reasons, as well as other volatile issues like Kurdish control of Kirkuk in the north and the issue of federalism in Iraq, Rubaie's conclusion is ominous: "For all those reasons, it would be delusional to say that the magical solution to Iraq's predicament resides in the elections, since quite the contrary, these elections could open the gates of hell."
