So, despite a near blackout in corporate media reporting about this resolution and it being advanced under rules reserved for "non-controversial" matters in the House by Speaker Pelosi, the resolution has come under increasing criticism. As a consequence, some of its most influential sponsors have withdrawn their support. In addition, there is a concomitant effort led by Lieberman to build grass roots political support for a U.S. war with Iran, using such allies as Pastor John Hagee, a "leading right-wing Christian Zionist".
The Israeli military and intelligence programs, publicly centered around preparations for an attack on Iran, appear to be designed to augment Israel's pressure on the U.S. to attack Iran instead as well as to cover secret preparations for a possible false flag attack on U.S. interests by Israel to be blamed on Iran. The clear intent is to provoke an immediate shooting war between the U.S. and Iran.
An attack on Iran by Israel itself is unlikely, because it would have limited impact on Iran's nuclear program, military forces, and national infrastructure, while potentially resulting in substantial Israeli naval and air force losses, and therefore ultimately threatening Israel's political establishment. Clearly, Israel wants to avoid war against its most substantial opponents, Egypt or Iran, when its current territorial interests can be satisfied by attacking its immediate, less capable abutters Lebanon and Syria, especially if Iran is less able to assist them. Given increasing U.S. military resistance to Israel's efforts as well as many elements among the U.S. political and economic establishment opposing a U.S. war with Iran, a false flag attack on U.S. interests may be Israel's last, best hope; however, the risks of such an attack, should it be exposed, would create difficulties that even the Israel Lobby would find difficult to contain.
Given Israel's and the Israel Lobby's central role in, and success at, helping start Bush's Iraq War, this effort to start a U.S. - Iran War is considered among the most serious threats to U.S. national security by those who believe such a war both gravely dangerous and manifestly contrary to U.S. national interests.
Likely Future Events
Whether the U.S. will become involved in war with Iran is unclear. What is likely is a set of events or non-events over the next few weeks, indicating the current intensions of the Bush administration and Israeli governments toward Iran and each other.
So what might happen? It seems likely that if Bush is going to start a war with Iran, one would expect the ramp-up PR effort and accompanying threats shortly after the end of August, beginning with complaints about "diplomacy not working", followed by new "evidence" of Iranian nuclear weapons development and perhaps an Iranian hand in killing American troops in Iraq, then building to "final warnings" as well as "last chances to come clean" etc., before hostilities in October. There may be a naval confrontation and some other casus belli, real or contrived. This timing would give McCain the best possible advantage from the bounce expected when the shooting first starts, especially if Obama is blamed for Iran's supposed intransigency. If McCain looks to win, then Bush may wait until after the election to strike; if Obama is ahead or the race is too close to predict, then Bush may strike before the election in the hopes of changing McCain's fortunes.
Among possible war-starting event sequences, would be a limited U.S. attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities near the Iraq border, followed by an Israeli false flag attack on a U.S. vessel, with Bush administration turning a blind eye to evidence of Israeli evolvement, possibly ignoring warnings about such an attack, and then ordering wider ranging attacks on Iran in "defense" of U.S. forces, resulting in a rapid series of escalating military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.
An early indication of such a new PR effort came from Secretary of State Rice, a leading Iraq war advocate. After the U.S. attended a much publicized, single meeting with Iran, Rice charged Iran was not serious, when attending Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns, under her orders, was to say nothing to the Iranian delegation. This ludicrous claim about failed diplomacy is not a good sign. Neither is evidence of a continued build-up of U.S. naval forces in theater. Despite its reputation for secrecy, the Bush administration is much like a giant transparent clock-work, whose movements are often apparent.
If this pre-war event sequence begins to develop, then there may be additional push-back from military-corporate interests against a war with Iran, which would manifest itself in Congress and the corporate media. However, barring highly unlikely multiple resignations at the highest command levels, military objections would be very dependent on support from the U.S. Congress, which is not expected to play any significant role in the decision to go to war. Whatever reluctance the U.S. Congress might manage in the face of current Israel Lobby demands for passage of its war starting resolution, congressional Democratic leadership would likely bow immediately to Bush administration requests for a "show" of support once a confrontation with Iran develops. This is especially true if the Democratic leadership sensed that failing to go along would present any risk to its immediate election prospects, easily triggered by even a hint of criticism from Republicans. Such a show of support would likely be similar to the Iraq War resolution, which the Bush administration could claim, while unneeded, supports military action, and the Democrats could later deny intending to do so, should the war's consequences be as disastrous as many expect.
So, from the Bush administration's likely perspective, it would be best that a crisis and demands for congressional support occur before the election, with the timing of the attack before or after the election, based in part on McCain's fortunes as the election nears. Bush is able to control the timing, provided Israel does not attack or otherwise provoke a conflict, because, as in the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a U.S. - Iran war would be a war of choice, decided by the U.S.. In the new American Homeland, all is a matter of the will of the imperial decider.
On the other hand, should the Bush administration not attack Iran, then chances of war between the U.S. and Iran would be greatly reduced, whether McCain or Obama is elected.
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Copyright © 2008 William H. White All rights are reserved; except, permission is granted for anyone to copy and distribute this document on the WEB. ~ The author asks that links in the text be retained.
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