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Turkey's High Risk Game

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On October 10, SANA quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying Moscow will defend UN Charter provisions in attempting to cool regional tensions.

He stressed respecting national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations. Moscow is willing anytime to perform interlocutor/intermediary services.

Russia knows what's at stake. It's determined to try avoiding general war. Anything may erupt any time. Turkey seems hellbent for conflict. It's spoiling for a fight. It's provoking and facilitating full-scale intervention.

Perhaps Israel is positioning itself to get involved. It deployed significant forces to its Golan/Syrian border. At the same time, it's keeping a low profile. If Washington unleashes Turkey to attack, Netanyahu may provide support or force Syria to divert troops to protect its southwestern border.

Bet on claims ahead about intervening for humanitarian and/or responsibility to protect reasons. The same ruse was used for Libya. Imperial aggression masquerades behind liberating intentions.

On October 11, Mossad-connected DEBKAfile (DF) headlined "Turkey's army on high state of readiness, first step for Syria no-fly zone," saying:

Heightened tensions keep escalating dangerously. Turkish threats and provocations suggest the worst. "(D)eclaring Syrian airspace 'unsafe' (is a) step toward creating a no-fly zone over Syria."

Erdogan may try unilaterally closing Syrian airspace without Security Council authorization. Doing so constitutes an act of war. Provoking Russia ups the stakes. It comes at the same time Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced deploying a contingent of US forces to Jordan. More on that below.

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DF added that Turkish cross-border artillery shelling advances its plan for establishing a 10 km buffer zone in Syrian territory. Doing so amounts to another act of war. Damascus will only take so much before retaliating. Ankara's pushing in that direction. It's following Obama administration orders.

Current conditions resemble events preceding Washington's war on Libya. Expect anything to erupt anytime. More war is the last thing nonbelligerent Middle East nations want. Ready or not, it very much looks like it's coming.

Deploying US forces on the Jordanian/Syria border makes it more likely. Initially small numbers are involved. Expect more to follow. How many won't be announced, let alone justifications for why they're there.

Security claims don't wash. Longstanding Washington plans are belligerent. After a Brussels NATO meeting, Panetta announced:

"We have a group of our forces there working to help build a headquarters there and to insure that we make the relationship between the United States and Jordan a strong one so that we can deal with all the possible consequences of what's happening in Syria."

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Take official statements with a grain of salt. Jordan's getting itself more involved. Syria has hostile northern and southern neighbors. Full-scale intervention will affect both. Israel menaces the region. Its intentions will be known in its own way, on its own timetable. 

Its military is formidable. Expect it used perhaps if Washington wants it operating cooperatively with Turkey, regional US forces, and other involved nations. At risk is embroiling the entire region.

Russia and China may not stand by idly. Both countries have major concerns. Lose Syria and risk Iran next. At risk is losing the entire region. 

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I was born in 1934, am a retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them.

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