What road for Tajikistan?
In 2009, the International Crisis Group published a report entitled "Tajikistan: on the Road to Failure" that stated "chronic food insecurity, disintegrating energy infrastructure, and endemic corruption are driving the country deeper into crisis." The dramatization of the situation is maybe excessive as the Tajiks are very resilient and President Rahmon remains popular for having brought an end to a debilitating civil war in the 90s and for the lack of credible political opponent. The fact remains that Tajikistan is a country with very little margin to play with.
Tajikistan is eager to play an active role in stabilizing Afghanistan, with which it shares over 1,300 km of borders, but assisting NATO and the U.S. is risky, as it makes it vulnerable to extremists. It is also risky for a country with over a million of its citizens living abroad as migrant workers, mostly in Russia, and sending back remittances representing 47% of GDP, one of the highest percentage in the world. Alienating Russia is not an option.
In addition to international challenges, Tajikistan faces domestic challenges: the parliamentary elections that took place at the end of February 2010 were deemed by the OSCE as having "failed on many basic democratic standards." This means that discontent cannot be expressed through democratic means, and this in turn could lead to an increased radicalization of those that have nothing, and thus nothing to lose.
Some may argue that Tajikistan is espousing ideas popular in the West to get its support, like Iran saying it would enrich its uranium in France and Russia or like North Korea saying it would not reactivate its nuclear plant against food aid. But the major difference is that Tajikistan is a genuine ally. Of course, jumping on the Afghanistan bandwagon with the West serves Tajikistan's interest too but greater interaction with its neighbor would be greatly beneficial for the region and beyond.
At least, Tajikistan has not become the backyard operations field of Al-Qaeda like Pakistan, which still got nonmilitary aid in the amount of $7.5 billion from the U.S. Congress in the fall of 2009. Press reports state that prior U.S. assistance to Pakistan has been misspent in the past. Interestingly, the amount diverted would have been enough to complete the Rogun dam.
If Tajikistan is not assisted today, in some ways despite all its flaws, we cannot expect it to stand strong tomorrow should Afghanistan collapse and fall into chaos, or if the situation in the region becomes more volatile.
Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-the-hydropower-solution-in-central-asia-yes-but.html
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