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The Fix Is In -- Again!
By Ernest Partridge (about the author) Page 3 of 4 page(s)
The media will not dispute it, much less investigate it.
But what if, once again, both pre-election polling and exit polling indicate an Obama victory, only to be overcome by a McCain "upset."
When this happened in Ohio in 2004, the media and the GOP came up with "the reluctant voter theory," whereby it was suggested that Bush voters were somehow less inclined than Kerry voters to talk with exit pollsters. No independent evidence was offered to explain this remarkable phenomenon, which seemed to be confined to precincts with DRE machines.
This time, if John McCain achieves a stunning upset, there will be a more plausible explanation on hand to deal with any discrepancy with poll projections: "the Tom Bradley effect." This phenomenon, which gets its name from the 1982 California gubernatorial race between Tom Bradley and George Deukmejian, indicates that a sizeable number of white voters who tell pollsters that race is not a factor in their voting choices, will in fact vote against a "person of color" when alone in the voting booth.
"The Bradley Effect" is extremely accommodating to the Republicans, since there is no way whatever to gauge its extent, if any. Thus almost any imaginable degree of "upset" can be explained away by this "effect."
If McCain does win in a stunning upset, count on the corporate media to grab onto "The Bradley Effect" in an instant. The pundits will deplore the "fact" that racism still plays such a large part in our elections. But it will all be a charade.
Just remember: thanks to "faith-based" voting and compliant media, for McCain and the GOP a plausible victory is a victory. And "the Bradley Effect" provides the plausibility.
Is There Any Hope?
Due to the aforementioned circumstances, an Obama victory in November is unlikely. But it is not impossible.
The election is three months away, and the party conventions are just ahead. Three months in politics can be an eternity.
First of all, the oligarchs might decide that a Democratic win might not be all that troublesome, and thus might tell their friends in the voting machine industry to cool it and let the voters have their way. After all, there is an economic shit-storm in the offing, and the corporatocracy might be more than willing to see it happen on the Democrats' watch.
Besides, as Matt Taibbi has argued this week, the corporatocracy pretty much owns Barack Obama anyway, and as the aftermath of the 2006 Congressional elections has proven, even when in control the Democratic party can be tamed and contained without much strain.
Second, the Obama campaign might come up with a brilliant strategy, though there is little indication so far of any such development. The Democrats have had four years to study the 2004 debacle and to plan a counteroffensive. For sure enough, 2008 is turning out to be 2004 redux, as Karl Rove and his acolytes dust off the old playbook and proceed accordingly. They know full well that McCain can not win legitimately on his merits, so instead, and predictably, they are attacking Obama: "an elitist," "a celebrity," "not one of us" (i.e., he's black and maybe a Muslim), "he's posing as 'The One'" (i.e., he's the anti-Christ). As in 2000 and 2004, the Republican campaign is attempting to define its opposition. And once again, they appear to be succeeding.
So has the Obama camp at last come up with an effective way to deal with the Sigretti-Atwater-Rove brand of gutter politics? To date, they have largely responded by being "positive" and concentrating on "the issues." They should ask John Kerry how all that worked out for him.
It won't do. It's time for a Willie Stark moment. During his week-long retreat, Barack Obama should read Chapter 2 (in particular, pages 136-144) of Robert Penn Warren's "All the King's Men," wherein Stark throws away his wonky, issue-clogged speech, speaks from his anguished and angry heart, and turns his fortunes around.
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