1
1
1
If Pakistan fell to the Taliban, it would be the most remarkable victory in the history of warfare based on the measure of forces and experience.
Is this likely to be the case?
The Economist dismissed the chances of a Taliban victory over Pakistan.
"If, unthinkably, the disparate warlords who make up the Pakistan Taliban were to mass together for a frontal attack, Pakistan’s army, which is 620,000-strong and well-drilled for conventional warfare, could crush them. Indeed, many pundits reckon that an Islamist takeover in Pakistan would be possible only with the army’s support." The Economist, Apr 30, 2009
Scholar and commentator Juan Cole said the notion of a Taliban victory simply "makes no sense." He pointed out that the two largest vote getters in the last election for president were not Muslim fundamentalists and that the vast majority of the nation's Muslims are not fundamentalists (Informed Comment, Apr 26, 2009).
The most recent major political controversy in Pakistan has been the broad public support and protest for a return of the Supreme Court justices fired by then President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf. These justices found that the president was not qualified by to run in the 2008 presidential elections. This type of issue hardly indicates a population ripe for radical Islam.
But what about the threat to the United States?
Advisor Holbrooke and Admiral Mullen claim an imminent danger from a Taliban victory. The senior Taliban leader in Pakistan is doing all he can to promote that storyline. Baitullah Mahsud told the Los Angles Times that, "Our mission is to continue jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan and to avenge drone attacks, even inside America," Apr 1, 2009. This was nothing less than the 9/11 threats that Holbrooke and Mullen see in the mountains of Pakistan.
Five weeks ago, the Los Angeles Times did a comprehensive report on this question citing sources from various government agencies. A "military officer" said Mahsud's statements showed "how dangerous he and his group are." A CIA source discounted Mahsud's importance and a "counterterrorism official" was quoted as saying, "I think it's a lot of boasting on his part." Los Angeles Times, Apr 1, 2009
The Times described a FBI document on Mahsud that said, "The bulletin discounted his U.S. threats describing them as 'aspirational.'" The FBI was willing to go on the record through spokesman Richard Kolko who remarked, "We are not aware of any imminent or specific threats to the U.S."
The Taliban faction attacking civilians and the Pakistani Frontier Corp in the Swat administrative district near Pakistan's capitol, Islamabad, is lead by Maulana Fazlullah. He leads a force estimated at 5,000 fighters (of a Taliban in Pakistan estimated at 50,000).
He came to prominence by being the most strident voice opposing U.S. Predator drone bombings of the region. His solution was strict Islamic law and excessive violence for the people of Swat who are characterized as more interested in commerce and making a living than radical politics. The districts shopkeepers dislike the Taliban for ruining their business and the government and United States for bombing them.
This is the great threat to the United States that Holbrooke, Mullen and Petraeus warn us about: a group of 5,000 extremely violent religious thugs who frighten the populace with acts of random violence, attacks on girls schools (200 in all), and bans on vaccines. The Fazlullah lead Taliban can barely control the Swat district, a region just larger than Rhode Island. Yet we are being told that they could actually defeat the Pakistan Army, take over nuclear facilities, and attack the United States.
What's this all about?
In the presidential campaign, President Obama caused a stir when he said, "There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won’t act, we will" Times Online, Aug 2, 2008. The issue wasn't discussed much until Obama came into office when he made official the already underway Predator drone attacks on targets in Pakistan on January 23, 2009.
This was the origin of the new 9/11 threat as storyline shoved in the face of Pakistani officials by Holbrooke and Mullen on their visit to Islamabad in early April, 2009.
