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In the United States, neoconservatives also pushed for war thinking that taking out Saddam Hussein would make Israel more secure. These Israeli leaders and their neocon allies got their wish on March 19, 2003, with the U.S.-U.K. invasion. Of course, pressure from Israel and its Lobby was not the only factor behind the invasion of Iraq -- think also oil, military bases, various political ambitions, revenge, etc. -- but the Israeli factor was critical.
A Calculating Senator
I'm afraid, though, that these calculations aimed at enhancing Israeli security may ultimately have the opposite effect. The Iraq War and the anti-Americanism that it has engendered across the Middle East seem sure to make Israel's position in the region even more precarious.
If the Iraq War does end up making the region more dangerous for Israel, the fault will lie with Israel's hard-line leaders, as well as with those American officials (and media pundits) who so eagerly clambered onboard for the attack on Iraq. One of those U.S. officials was the calculating senator from New York.
In a kind of poetic justice, Clinton's politically motivated warmongering became a key factor in her losing the Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama, who as a young state senator in Illinois spoke out against the war.
Though she bet wrong in 2002-03, Clinton keeps doubling down in her apparent belief that her greater political vulnerability comes from being perceived as "weak" against U.S. adversaries. So, she's emerged as one of the Obama administration's leading hawks on Afghanistan and Iran.
I suspect she still has her eye on what she considers the crucial centers of financial, media and other power that could support a possible future run for president in 2016. Another explanation, I suppose, could be that the Secretary of State genuinely believes that the United States should fight wars favored by right-wing Israelis and their influential supporters in the U.S.
Whichever interpretation you prefer, there's no doubt that she has put herself in the forefront of American leaders threatening Iran over its alleged "nuclear weapons" program, a "weapons" program that Iran denies exists and for which the U.S. intelligence community has found little or no evidence.
As a former CIA analyst myself, it strikes me as odd that Clinton's speeches never reflect the consistent, unanimous judgment of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, issued formally (and with "high confidence") in November 2007 that Iran stopped working on a nuclear weapon in the fall of 2003 and had not yet decided whether or not to resume that work.
On Feb. 10, 2011, in a formal appearance before the House Intelligence Committee, National Intelligence Director James Clapper testified: "We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."
"We continue to judge Iran's nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran."
Who's in Charge Here?
Yet, in her determination to come across as hard-line, Clinton has undercut promising initiatives that might have constrained Iran from having enough low-enriched uranium to even be tempted to build a nuclear arsenal. In 2010, when -- at the urging of President Obama -- the leaders of Turkey and Brazil worked out an agreement with Iran, under which Iran agreed to ship about half of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) out of country, Clinton immediately rejected it in favor of more severe economic sanctions.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were left wondering who exactly was in charge in Washington -- Hillary and her pro-Israeli friends, or Obama. Brazil released a three-page letter that Obama had sent to Lula da Silva a month earlier in which Obama said the proposed uranium transfer "would build confidence and reduce regional tensions by substantially reducing Iran's" stockpile of low-enriched uranium.
The contrast between Obama's support for the initiative and the opposition from various hardliners (including Clinton) caused "some puzzlement," one senior Brazilian official told the New York Times. After all, this official said, the supportive "letter came from the highest authority and was very clear."
It was a particularly telling episode. Clinton basked in the applause of Israeli leaders and neocon pundits for blocking the uranium transfer and securing more restrictive U.N. sanctions on Iran -- and since then Iran appears to have dug in its heels on additional negotiations over its nuclear program. Secretary Clinton is almost as assiduous as Netanyahu in never missing a chance to paint the Iranians in the darkest colors -- even if that ends up painting the entire region into a more dangerous corner.
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