This piece was reprinted by OpEd News with permission or license. It may not be reproduced in any form without permission or license from the source.
Whatever school of thought you may favor regarding Obama's Iran "strategy," let me suggest that you put yourself in Netanyahu's shoes as he watches the pre-game interview. Do you agree that he is likely to come away with the idea that Obama has just applied a fresh coat of high-gloss paint to the box into which the Israelis and their supporters believe they have painted him?
Four months ago, I wrote an article entitled "Israel's Window to Bomb Iran," as the war-drumming on Iran began its crescendo. What has happened since has reinforced my assessment that:
"The key factor in any Israeli decision to send its aircraft and missiles to Iran is the degree to which Netanyahu and other hard-line Likud leaders believe that President Obama is locked into giving blanket support to Israel -- particularly as Election 2012 draws near."The Israelis might well conclude that the formidable effectiveness of the Likud Lobby and kneejerk support of the U.S. Congress as well as still powerful neoconservatives in the Executive Branch (and on the opinion pages of major American newspapers) amount to solid assurance of automatic support for pretty much anything Israel decides to do.
"If Israel translates this into a green light to attack Iran, the rest of the world -- even Washington -- may get little or no warning."
We need to add two important new factors since then:
1- Somehow the main focus has shifted from (a) how soon Iran could get a nuclear weapon to (b) how soon Israel is likely to attack Iran's nuclear facilities -- whether they are shown to be related to nuclear weapons development, or not.2- The evolving discourse in the Fawning Corporate Media (FCM) has accustomed many Americans to assume that the Israelis would be within their rights to start a war on a convenient "IF" -- i.e., IF the Iranians are working on a nuclear weapon. Never mind that Defense Secretary Panetta stated publicly just four weeks ago that they are NOT.
Of course, Panetta was simply reiterating the consensus conclusion of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies that declared in 2007 that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon in 2003 and that it did not appear that such work had resumed. And even if you don't want to believe the U.S. intelligence community and Panetta, there was the recent acknowledgement by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak that the Mossad apparently has concluded the same thing.
Barak gave the interview on Jan. 18, the day before JCS Chairman Martin Dempsey arrived for talks in Israel:
Question: Is it Israel's judgment that Iran has not yet decided to turn its nuclear potential into weapons of mass destruction?Barak: ... confusion stems from the fact that people ask whether Iran is determined to break out from the control [inspection] regime right now " in an attempt to obtain nuclear weapons or an operable installation as quickly as possible. Apparently that is not the case. "
Question: How long will it take from the moment Iran decides to turn it into effective weapons until it has nuclear warheads?
Barak: I don't know; one has to estimate. ... Some say a year, others say 18 months. It doesn't really matter. To do that, Iran would have to announce it is leaving the [UN International Atomic Energy Agency] inspection regime and stop responding to IAEA's criticism, etc.
Why haven't they [the Iranians] done that? Because they realize that ... when it became clear to everyone that Iran was trying to acquire nuclear weapons, this would constitute definite proof that time is actually running out. This could generate either harsher sanctions or other action against them. They do not want that.
(For more details, see Consortiumnews.com's "U.S./Israel: Iran NOT Building Nukes.")
Yet, in the United States, the FCM's constant repetition that Iran is working on a nuclear weapon -- despite the intelligence consensus that Iran is NOT doing so -- has created widespread acceptance for an Israeli preemptive war. In many circles, the idea is almost greeted with a yawn, with another yawn given to the notion that "of course" the U.S. would have to march "in lockstep" with Israel, if it got into a war.
A few days ago, I was given eight full TV minutes on RT to discuss whether it is a good idea to start wars in the subjunctive mood, and what I believe are Israel's true aims vis-a-vis Iran. In my view, the principal aim, pure and simple, is regime change in Tehran, not the destruction of Iran's notional nukes.
Remember, there have been U.N. inspectors crawling all over Iran, which has yet to be shown to be in violation of the basic Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran has signed and Israel has not. (Another relevant fact that is typically left out of FCM articles about the theoretical possibility of Iran building one nuke is that Israel has a sophisticated -- and undeclared -- arsenal of some 300 nukes.)
Is it conceivable that this kind of information has been kept from President Obama?
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
3
3
3
