The first part of the clause is a far cry from the original that states "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."
Part two states "Iran could have enough HEU for a nuclear weapon as soon as late 2009." While the NIE judged with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of this is late 2009, it continued "but that this is very unlikely."
Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern who, during his 27-year tenure with the CIA, chaired National Intelligence Estimates commented "The resolution conveniently drops off the clause, but that this is very unlikely." He added, "That is so transparent and disingenuous that it is not worthy of legislators."
Recent news suggests the administration may not need to risk a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident. Israel Today reported over the weekend, "In an apparent about-face, the Bush Administration announced on Friday that it has decided to approve the sale of 1,000 advanced bunker-buster bombs to Israel."
If Israel uses these weapons against Iran it will come as no surprise if in the aftermath, the U.S. rushes to the aid of Israel. After all, Bush declared in an address to the Knesset in May that "America is proud to be Israel's closest ally and best friend in the world."
What should be done now?
Ray McGovern offered that "Mullen should formally and publicly request a Memorandum to Holders of the November 2007 NIE on Iran inquiring into what the evidence collected since mid-07 might tell us of any changes. He could do that and he should."
The function of an MTH explained McGovern "would be to update the most serious issues covered in the original NIE dated Nov. 07. A Memo to Holders could be done and coordinated among the 16 intelligence agencies in a month or two."
At least one member of Congress agrees with the need for an MTH. Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) offered an amendment to the 2009 National Intelligence Act that calls for a Memorandum to Holders of the NIE on Iran. The Bush administration has already threatened a veto.
McGovern responded, "It was a laudable effort on his part to try to make it law that there be an MTH so McConnell would be forced (theoretically, at least) to do one. But, it speaks volumes that a member of Reyes' committee thinks it necessary to do, via eminently veto-able legislation, what Reyes could do by just picking up the phone. HPSCI does, after all, control the CIA budget and other agencies' money as well."
Yes. Congress has the power to request an update - a Memorandum to Holders - of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.
With a surge in rhetoric, a U.S. sale of bunker-busting bombs to Israel, a media that hasn’t learned its lesson, charges that the administration will "Gulf of Tonkinize" Iran, and more members of Congress including Presidential candidates conveniently forgetting or dismissing the findings of the NIE on Iran, ordering a Memorandum to Holders is the responsible thing to do. Anything less would be gross misfeasance.
For five months, Mr. Andrews emphatically stated he would not seek reelection to the House if he lost the Senate primary. Last week, he threw his hat back in the ring replacing wife, Camille, on the ballot.
Mr. Andrews, now that you’re back in the game, action is what is needed. Call for a Memorandum to Holders of the 2007 NIE on Iran and invite your colleagues on both sides to join you. Set the record straight before President Bush taps you on the shoulder once again.
Congressman Rob Andrews: Phone 202-225-6501 Fax 202-225-6583