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Market Manipulation to Prop up the Dollar: How Long can it Continue?

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How will it end?

As Yogi Berra said, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.  But here are some facts that might help us imagine where we are headed:

  • The total value of the derivative market is now estimated to be one and a half quadrillion dollars.    To put that number in perspective, it's 11 times the net worth of everyone in the world put together..  It's twenty years worth of the world's GDP.  It's a hundred times bigger than it was just fifteen years ago.

  • In theory, paper gold is exchangeable for the real thing.  (Of course - that's what gives it value.)  But the amount of paper gold far exceeds the physical gold in the world, and at some point, the people who hold paper gold will turn in their chips faster than sources of physical gold can keep pace.  At the first hint of default, everyone who holds paper gold will rush for the door at once.  The price of gold could rise precipitously.  The same thing could happen with the value of world currencies that are backed more firmly than the dollar.

  • Since 1982, the US has been importing more than we export, and borrowing to make up an ever-growing gap between the two. The BRICs are the largest countries that are still exporting more than they import - Brazil, Russia, India and China.  They have been happy to accept dollars for their wares, but now that the dollar has been debased and propped up by the derivatives market, they may decide to demand payment in some currency not controlled by the Federal Reserve.  Just this spring, the BRICs met in South Africa and issued a call for a new global currency.  

  • The US is still a net exporter of food, but virtually all our manufactured small consumer goods are imported.  Clothing, furniture, and electronics are imported.  Some percentage of large appliances and automobiles purchased by Americans are still manufactured here, and about half our oil comes from American wells. So if there is a collapse in the gold market or the dollar goes south, it is small manufactured goods that will most quickly become dear.  The price tags at WalMart could begin to make you think of Neiman Marcus.  People who invested early in energy conservation and alternative energy will be lionized as if they had some kind of ESP.

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  • I feel confident in predicting that this implosion of the world's economic system will precipitate a crisis for democracy.  Whether it leads to a populist uprising or a tightening into a full-fledged police state depends on us.  Don't count on the courage of our political leaders.

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Josh Mitteldorf, an editor at OpEdNews, blogs on aging at http://JoshMitteldorf.ScienceBlog.com. Read how to stay young at http://AgingAdvice.org. Educated to be an astrophysicist, he has branched out from there to mathematical modeling in a (more...)
 

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...one thing is wrong.  You said "In addition... by Scott Baker on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 10:27:12 AM
Correct as usual, Scott. I didn't learn anything f... by Ernie Messerschmidt on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 2:17:03 PM
What a pleasure it is to read conversations based ... by Susan Lee Schwartz on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 3:18:13 PM
The Fed does QE by buying assets from private bank... by Derryl Hermanutz on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 4:45:26 PM
I dashed off the earlier comment a bit too quickly... by Scott Baker on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 6:18:12 PM
I tend to see things differently.  People ten... by Neal Chalabi Chambers on Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 at 1:45:31 AM
gage crisis "disappear..."   ...which fi... by Jill Herendeen on Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 at 11:12:09 PM
I agree, and I'll change the text accordingly.... by Josh Mitteldorf on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 3:07:30 PM
Excellent, actually. Precisely the information the... by Rand Clifford on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 11:58:37 PM
Interesting analysis... An additional reason for t... by S. Juniper on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 11:24:16 AM
Josh Mittledorf has raised some important issues. ... by Paul Craig Roberts on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 12:24:42 PM
Paul, many people grasp that this is not capitalis... by Susan Lee Schwartz on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 3:29:12 PM
As usual, the most visible flaw of this is being t... by Guglielmo Tell on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 1:03:15 PM
There are a few false assumptions in the article a... by Paul Repstock on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 5:03:46 PM
...if society accepts that electronic money is som... by Scott Baker on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 6:27:34 PM
into accepting that they do not have an inherant r... by Paul Repstock on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 6:39:44 PM
Let's hope it does not get to that.  That is ... by Scott Baker on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 6:58:35 PM
...we'll run out of lipstick to put on this pig!... by ProgressiveBum on Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 6:27:51 PM
Who don't produce but manipulate money only, the s... by Neal Chalabi Chambers on Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 at 1:33:47 AM
For the rest, the main imperative is to protect th... by Paul Repstock on Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 at 9:18:36 AM
There is nothing wrong with 'any type' of work or ... by Paul Repstock on Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 at 2:42:42 PM