The late vote timeline shows that Obama's lead is steadily increasing. But the small incremental changes in his total share are misleading. One must consider the difference between the total Late Vote and Election Day share.
Obama leads the 9.41 million late votes by 56.5-40.4%. These are recorded votes, not exit polls. Once again, as in every election since 2000, the late Democratic share exceeded the Election Day share by approximately 5%.
Obama vote margins:
Total vote: 50.8-47.5 (3.3% margin, 126.87 million votes.
Election Day: 50.3-48.1 (2.2%, 117.45 million votes).
Late vote: 56.5-40.4 (16.1%, 9.41 million votes).
Weighted late vote: 53.3-42.8 (10.5% margin). Late state vote shares are weighted by total votes cast. The solid margin largely refutes the argument that the late votes are not representative of the electorate.
Two-party vote shares and margins:
51.7-48.3 Election Day Recorded share (3.4%)
55.5-44.5 Late Vote share weighted by total recorded vote (11.0%)
58.3-41.7 Unweighted Late Vote share (16.6%)
56.4-43.6 True Vote Model (12.8%)
2012 Late Vote Timeline
On......Obama led by...
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes)
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)