In May, Iran said it tested a surface-to-surface missile that is capable of reaching parts of Europe.
"Of course, this is just a test, and obviously there is much work to be done before it can be built and deployed. But I see it as a significant step forward in terms of Iran's capacity to deliver weapons," said Gary Samore, special assistant to the president on nonproliferation. LINK
Further down in the article quoted above, Uzi Rubin made this statement:
"If they push it -- put all the budget, put all the engineers -- three or four years" is all it would take to give the Sajjil a range of around 2,500 miles, enough to hit London. "Will they do it? I'm not sure."
But he noted that the predictions about Iran's ever-growing missile reach "are coming true, perhaps sooner than anyone thought. " I think there was an underestimation of Iranian capability."
The time-frame of Iran's eventual breakthrough in developing a nuclear device small enough to be mounted on one of their ballistic missiles is based on the assumption their nuclear research is starting from scratch; making such an assumption fails to take into consideration how much of Pakistan's nuclear know-how was sold to the Iranians by Abdul Qadeer Khan. In an article by the London Times, as reported by Global Security Newswire, the sale of nuclear secrets to Iran by Pakistan appears to have been authorized by their government:
Pakistani Leadership Authorized Sale of Nuclear Secrets, Khan Letter Speculates
Monday, Sept. 21, 2009
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto probably approved a plan to sell sensitive nuclear technology to Iran, former top nuclear scientist and proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan told his wife in a 2003 letter, the London Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 9).
Khan confessed in 2004 to running a nuclear smuggling ring that provided Iran with centrifuge technology that now plays a key role in the Middle Eastern state's uranium enrichment program. The United States and some European powers suspect that Iran's enrichment program is geared toward developing weapons, but Tehran has insisted the effort would only produce nuclear power plant fuel (see related GSN story, today).
"Probably with the blessings of BB (Benazir Bhutto, who became prime minister in 1988) and (a now-retired general) " General Imtiaz (Benazir's defense adviser, now dead) asked " me to give a set of drawings and some components to the Iranians. " The names and addresses of suppliers were also given to the Iranians," Khan wrote in the letter, which also refers to Pakistan's nuclear collaboration with China and North Korea and makes reference to Libya. Pyongyang and Tripoli are believed to have benefited from Khan's proliferation network. MORE
When it comes to nuclear proliferation and Iran's true nuclear capability, I believe it's wrong to "assume" anything. Neither the intelligence community nor political analysts know exactly how much technology was sold to Iran by Pakistan, and there's an obvious possibility that miniaturizing nuclear warheads and even ballistic missile technology could also have been sold; Iran's rapid advancement on ballistic missile technology, including targeting, would seem to indicate they are progressing by leaps and bounds, which could be because more than enrichment technology passed hands from Pakistan to Iran.
Based on recent intelligence, it would appear that Iran's nuclear and ballistic technology is progressing more rapidly than (CIA) analysts initially predicted; furthermore, a recent statement by the IAEA apparently left room for doubt when they stated that "there was no concrete evidence that Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons." That statement seems to infer there may be circumstantial evidence, but at this point no "smoking gun" has been uncovered. Iran's newest enrichment facility outside of Qom, with only 3,000 centrifuges definitely points to an enrichment program that is highly suspicious. I also believe the location of this facility also makes it harder for IAEA inspectors to fully inspect what they believe is the entire complex. Any base that is carved into a mountain can contain hidden rooms and labs that can be extremely hard, if not impossible to find - and as history has proven, Iran has hid their nuclear facilities from the International Community, a practice that adds to the suspicion that Iran's nuclear intentions are far from peaceful; when attempting to determine whether or not the Iranians are pursuing nuclear technology for peacetime purposes, we need to remember that their entire nuclear program was hidden from the world for eighteen (18) years, and even today, the Iranian's still engage in deception and subterfuge as it pertains to their nuclear ambitions.
I believe that most people in the United States would prefer that Iran's loggerhead with the global community with respect to their nuclear program is effectively resolved through negotiation rather than military action. However, based on Iran's most recent deception, their continued denial of the Holocaust, and their ballistic missile program which is lengthening the reach of their missiles to include targets in Europe and possibly London - Iran is demonstrating they have goals in their missile program that belie any statement that their programs are purely defensive. Their President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, continually pressed the United Nations to pursue "peaceful goals," criticized other nations for using torture - yet Iran has actively tortured, raped and murdered its own citizens on a scale that most of humanity find repulsive. How does the International Community negotiate with an individual that states one thing, yet his government's repressive regime does another? This is not a rhetorical question - but seeks logical answers, where in reality, it's possible that none may be found.
China and Russia, who are profiting from Iran, will oppose any meaningful sanctions against Iran, thus mitigating any deterrent effect that Western Bloc nations will be able to muster against Iran. Russia and China still harbor great amounts of ill will against the United States - and for those who view either as "friends" of the United States, I suggest you adjust your opinion(s) to the reality of these two nations constantly opposing the United States on any U.N. Resolution on a wide variety of issues simply because they view any failure of U.S. leadership to be beneficial to their overall strategy to undermine U.S. policy.
I have been waiting to post this article on Iran until something of substance happened, and today was that day. Iran's actions seem are still belligerent - and their statements today could very well lead to an eventual attack on Iran by Israel, especially since they have vowed to neutralize Iran before more sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems are delivered from Russia in the absence of International actions they believe will convince Iran to halt their nuclear ambitions. Unfortunately, Iran believes itself immune to attack, and I believe their logic is flawed:
