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Imploding Bubble Economies

By       Message Stephen Lendman     Permalink
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As bad as conditions are now, expect worse ahead. It doesn't matter how much money is printed. Job markets have collapsed with no effective policy initiatives to revive them. Rhetorical promises substitute for meaningful initiatives to stimulate growth. They're not forthcoming so expect decline.

In America, virtually everything points down, including business and consumer sentiment, production, retail sales, employment, housing, credit, and growth.

Rosenberg compares today's credit contraction crisis to the 1930s and Japan in 1990 when its equity and real estate bubbles collapsed. Subsequent downturns were protracted. Recoveries were "fragile and soon aborted."

A major difference between conditions now and Japan then was its 20% saving rate that let households "hold together as housing, commercial construction, and capex (capital expenditures) collapsed."

In contrast, Americans are way over-leveraged enough to require years more needed to reduce it to normal levels. As a result, household purchasing power will be greatly restrained.

Pent-up discretionary demand is absent to reduce debt and interest payment burdens. Rosenberg calls it a "secular downsizing shift."

Moreover, despite zero interest rates, banks aren't lending and consumers aren't borrowing as they're up to their ears in debt. They need less, not more. As a result, it'll keep receding for years. It represents a generational semi-permanent shift, promising protracted negative or weak growth.

Rosenberg also calls it "the movie of (past decades) in reverse: savings growth (replacing) discretionary spending."

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Frugality is in, frivolity out. From the early 1980s through 2007, debt surged, leaving household balance sheets way overstretched. 

Declining demand and supply of credit ahead has "profound implication for interest rates, inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings." 

The only positive is one day the pain will end. So far, it's nowhere in sight as economic contraction continues.

Expect angry Americans to react. Perhaps they'll replicate disruptive protests across Europe. 

Trends analyst Gerald Celente explains that when people lose everything and they have nothing else to lose, they lose it.

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As America sinks deeper into Depression, perhaps that day of reckoning approaches. 

For long-suffering households, it can't come a moment too soon.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at Email address removed

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I was born in 1934, am a retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them.

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