Regarding 2016, Bush faces problems and opportunities stemming from generations of Bush forbears prominent in government and business.
"Even Republicans who like Jeb a lot," a former high-ranking Republican office-holder told me, "worry about whether the public is ready for a third Bush presidency."
So, Jeb Bush benefits from every week whereby he can polish his image without announcing a candidacy.
Most voters have short memories. Many know far more about a favorite singer or sports star than even an elected president like Obama, much less a candidate.
Washington insiders advising job-seekers for top federal posts often warn against seeking front-runner status too early. Better to quietly raise funds and boost civic stature via a book, speeches, and inspirational public policy projects.
Front-runners attract attacks from rivals and the media. "Lie low in the tall grass" is a great slogan for Washington, not just other jungles.
That way, an aspirant can pounce if some unfortunate accident befalls a front-runner.
That is a longstanding formula in politics that has worked many times. In a variant, President Obama's ascendancy was enabled by election-year revelation of separate sex scandals that destroyed his primary and general election opponents in his 2004 race to win the U.S. Senate seat for Illinois.
The Case for Bush
Might the public restore the Bush dynasty to power after all that happened to the economy, civil liberties and the military from from 2001 to 2009?
Remember, Republicans have to pick someone -- and GOP primary voters are not going to be focused on long-hidden Bush history so much as restoration of Republican rule.
No Republican aside from a Bush has won the presidency since Ronald Reagan's election in 1984. Anti-abortion and other cultural warriors will have their moments, but will have difficulty raising the kind of corporate funding needed for a billion-dollar race. Wall Street likes centrists like Bush or Christie.
Viewed this way, political commentary over the weekend makes more sense.
Karl Rove, a protégé of the Bush family for many years, refused to criticize Christie on a Fox News program.
For many months and perhaps well into 2015, Christie can stretch out a defense by stonewalling. That helps Jeb Bush.
Christie may even revert to his tough-guy persona: the schoolyard bully who jokes about having elderly opponents bashed with a baseball bat.
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