Prof. Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke
Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?.
For presentation at the ASSA meetings,
Boston MA, .
9th January 2000
It was never relevant to Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke that average American, notably those who were
reimbursing variable rate mortgages, or those who lost asstes and jobs did suffer from these strict monetary policy.
Should he have acted decisively and normalised the yield curve by lowering, according to our computation, the rates to around 1% when he knew what was happening, the sub prime mess wouldn't have occurred and the number of mortgage who defaulted would have been a fraction of what they were.
Beware I am not saying that these analysis are right, what I am saying is given his knowledge and his experience, if he wanted to avoid the Crash, which he saw coming he would have acted completly differently.
Was it the result of indecisiveness, mere stupidity or more worrisome, a carefully planed sabotage?
An Intended Mistake:
I have learned several things in my previous life as a trader:
- When you can turn to only one person or institution in order to solve a problem, they did cause it in the first place.
- When a professional make a mistake more often than not he did that on purpose.
He had means, motive, and opportunity and he did take the opportunity he is, according to US Criminal law it is sufficient to convict him beyond a reasonable doubt for a premeditated crime.
Given the precedent of Bernard Madoff he would get, given the volume of the losses caused, at least 150 years in jail.
The only purpose of the crash and The Great Recession was to put in place the necessary conditions of The Crash at the time The New Forces had decided to trigger it. According to my computation had he acted otherwise The Crash, which was unavoidable, would have happen at a much later date.
In fact we know with a great precision when Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke learned about the sub prime mess:
He took office on 1st February 2006.
When he took office the target was 4.5%; he increased them up to 5.25% with the intetion of inverting the yield curve sufficiently in order to create the Crash (see below The Puzzle of the Dyamic of a Crash.) on 29th June 2006. On 17th August 2006 he stopped to increase the rates. It is very difficult or almost impossible to time the Crash so Ben 'Systemic Risk' Bernanke increased the rates till he was sure he had reached his goal. So he has learned that his objective was reached between 29th June 2006 and 17th August 2006.
