Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is the main anti-government party in Pakistan at the moment. The history of the TTP is interesting and essential for understanding the current situation in Swat and the NWFP. The TTP was founded by Abdullah Mehsud, cousin of the current leader Baitullah Mehsud. The U.S. grabbed the former, Abdullah Mehsud, in Afghanistan after the US invasion of Afghanistan, and took him to the prison at Guantanamo Bay. Then they released him and sent him back to Pakistan. Their reasons for releasing him are obscure. Why did the US release him? Was he a double agent? As soon as Abdullah returned to Pakistan, he organized and founded TTP. Mullah Umar, leader of the real Taliban in Afghanistan, told his followers to disassociate themselves with Mehsud. Abdullah Mehsud was later killed by the Pakistani Army when he was entering Pakistan from Afghanistan not in the Tribal Areas but in the border area of Zhob, Balochistan. If the U.S. ordered his assassination by the Pakistan Army, it's unclear why they didn't kill him with one of their drone-fired missiles which are very active in the region. Clearly, they could have tracked his movements when he was giving press statements on a regular basis. After Abullah's assassination, his cousin, Baitullah Mehsud, took over the leadership of TTP. Finally, Maulvi Fazalullah is also part of the TTP story as he is the militant leader of Swat, loyal to the TTP and Baitullah Mehsud.
The Turmoil in Swat
The turmoil in Swat seems to have subsided for a while. When the Pakistan Army entered Swat, they realized that it would not be easy to take control of the Swat area without incurring many civilian casualties. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants have been scattered all over the valley. They were using human shields with ease, often setting up positions on roof tops of residential homes. People began to move out of the area fearing full-scale intense fighting.
The Local Government of the Northern Provinces
The local government of NWFP is the Awami (people's) National Party (ANP). The ANP is a party based on Marxist ideology. When Pakistan was being created, the ANP didn’t want to be part of Pakistan. But the majority of Pukhtoon population wanted to accede to Pakistan, since it was to be a Muslim-majority country. During the Afghan Jihad, when Osama Bin Laden was Washington's blue eyed boy, the ANP was the only party in Pakistan which was against the Mujahedeen fighting against the USSR.
Surprisingly now, the ANP has become a pro-US party and is in coalition with ruling PPP (the political party of Pakistan president Zardari). In the year past, the TTP (identified above) has begun a campaign of killing ANP members, especially elected members of the provincial and national parliament. The TTP views the ANP to be pro-US and part of the pro-US Pakistan government. There have also been a few attempts on the life of Asfandyar Wali, ANP's party chair. Note that all these complexities are not the result of what would have been natural political developments in Pakistan. Instead, they are a direct result of meddling in the domestic affairs of a sovereign country by the CIA and other foreign elements who have their own agenda for Pakistan.
The Current Peace Agreement
The ANP, the local government of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), finally came to the conclusion that in order to control its province it was imperative that Swat be reverted back to Islamic courts. The Pakistan Army also suggested to the government that there is still time to give peace a chance in Swat. Reluctantly, the government of Pakistan planned, or rather ill-planned, a peace deal for Swat. Please consider the basic elements of that peace deal:
Sufi Mohammed and the Implementation of Islamic Laws
The peace deal is not between the Pakistan government and TTP. The deal is between the local NWFP government and Sufi Mohammad, the original leader of the Swat Islamic courts movement and leader of Tehrik-e-Nizam e Shariat e Mustafa, a movement for implementation of Islamic laws (TNSM). Sufi Mohammad commands respect of the local population, and Fazalullah, the militant leader of TTP, is his son in law. Because of their relationship, it can be assumed that Sufi will be able to negotiate with Fazalullah successfully and a lasting peace will be achieved. Fazalullah has already announced a ten day cease fire.
Demand for Islamic Court System
According to investigative journalist, Ansar Abassi:
“Sufi Muhammad, chief of (TNSM), had assured the authorities two months ago that he would ensure peace in Swat only if his demand of setting up of an Islamic appellate court named Darul Qaza was met to ensure quick justice. The president, Zadari, who was initially scared of the expected international pressure in case he approved the Shariah system in Swat, but he has now agreed to this and given a go-ahead to the Frontier regime to sign and announce the peace deal.”
A Fragile Peace is Developing
The peace deal between the local, ANP government of NWFP and TNSM has been approved, and recently the situation in Swat has moved toward normalization. Schools and shops are open and people have started to restock their supplies and are trying to assess the damage done by the fighting.
President Zardari, the Pakistan Army and the Parliament
