"Can We Leave Iraq?"

Mr. Abdelaziz has raised many strong points in his analysis and his conclusion that America should not leave Iraq. Such thoughtful and careful analysis and clearly stated views are essential to a robust debate of our options in Iraq.

I would like to state a straightforward, but nontrivial objection to Mr. Abdelazziz conclusion that America should prolong its presence in Iraq.

A book produced by the American Petroleum Institute and published back in 03 described a nightmare scenario in the Gulf of conflict that pushed world oil prices to the catastrophic level of $40 a barrel.

Reuters reported this morning that oil prices on international markets slid to $60 a barrel.

We seem to be surviving quite well under these conditions.

Although I am focussing here on only one dimension of the consequences of a withdrawal from Iraq, this example supports my point that the consequences of a withdrawal may well be more endurable and less harmful than observers like Mr. Abdelazziz predict.

Robert Chapman
Lansing, NY

by Robert Chapman (28 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 557 comments) on Wednesday, January 3, 2007 at 6:57:10 PM
 

Can We Leave Iraq?

Thank you, Mr. Chapman for your kind words. You are right, we are doing OK with 60$ barrel of oil, regardless of the American Petroleum Institute prediction. It is not the first institution or think tank that got it wrong otherwise, Iraq would be supporting our invasion with their Oil production by now.
However, the current price has 30 percent premium because of the geopolitical situation according to Exxon CEO and it is stable because it takes in consideration the status of the region today, polling out will change the situation and the risk premium.
The real danger though goes beyond energy. In my opinion, the extremist religious based ideology is the greatest danger. An unstable Iraq will provide the perfect ground for recruiting more extremists that sincerely believe America is after their religion, which is the only thing they still own!

by sameh abdelaziz (35 articles, 6 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 28 comments) on Wednesday, January 3, 2007 at 9:56:11 PM
 

The Bad Guys will Go Somewhere Else Once We Leave

If we do leave Iraq in short order: all those insurgents are emboldened and go where? Saudi Arabia? Lebanon? The Horn of Africa? All around Israel?

And who else could tumble and fall? Pakistan? Thailand? Israel? The House of Saud?

We had better get a Blue Ribbon Panel going in the U.S. to get ready for what's NEXT!

When we lose Iraq we are saying to someone else: here is your Black Spot.

I know I am vastly in the minority on this and even if Keane and Kagan have the president's ear: you still have to get past Biden and Kennedy. And Reid. And Murtha. Byrd. Levin.

Sadly, they have not made a convincing "we've thought this through and for the good of the nation and the world here are the alternatives and here is our plan..." argument.

If they did I missed it.......so shame on me!!

Getting into a war is relatively easy. Getting out with an acceptable situation is tougher....

John

by John E. Carey (207 articles, 0 quicklinks, 10 diaries, 106 comments) on Thursday, January 4, 2007 at 2:07:26 AM
 

Somewhere Else!

Thank you for pointing this out. Somewhere else is everywhere, and the failing states you mentioned will be springboard for more attacks. Isn't that what happened in the mid-eighties after they left Afghanistan?

by sameh abdelaziz (35 articles, 6 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 28 comments) on Thursday, January 4, 2007 at 7:19:10 AM