Revenge in the Middle East will go on for generations even when it is between tribes from the same nation.
There is also a simple human dimension to the problem; we created our own worst enemies within month of the occupation, when the whole army, police, and millions of other people that committed no crime other than making living working for the Iraqi government ordered to go home without pay. When you wake up unable to feed yours, you will do something about it, it might be rational, but more than likely it will not.
Our strategy is faulty as well because it does not take in consideration the nature of the fight. We have the most powerful army in the world but it is created for fighting armies, trained to wipe installations, and armors in seconds but how can we wipe all the civilians in Iraq, and if we can will this count as a victory?
History is another enemy of ours; we made the oldest mistake in the book, we played with the fire and now it is burning beyond control. We came to a country where there are at least three major ethnic groups with a long history of grudges and mistrust. We started taking sides by supporting Shiites and Kurds over Sunnis. I can understand the reason behind our actions but if you are the group on the losing end, you will not accept gracefully your new fate imposed by an occupying power.
In addition, the two factions on the receiving end used the American support for their own benefit, the Kurds looking for a national homeland and the Shiites for the political power and full control of the country. We played in their hands and now as they achieved their goals, we became the enemies, and the new polls demonstrate how Iraqis regardless of ethnicity view the American occupation unfavorably. I have also to wonder, did our strategist learn anything from the British history in Iraq?
Our strategy for staying the course or doing the same thing but calling it differently will not work.
The second option is withdrawing the troops, and depending on who is describing the action it can be redeploying the troops, or cut and run. This is the most widely accepted solution by the political elites as well as the American people, but this option in my judgment is as dangerous as the first.
Leaving Afghanistan in chaos in the early eighties allowed the extremist elements to flourish over the next twenty years and become a real ideology. This ideology is the one that attacked the United States in September 11, and threaten the civilized world as a whole. Iraq today is much more dangerous than Afghanistan was at any point of its history; it is more dangerous because of the geographical location close to huge amount of energy supply, dangerous because of the oil and wealth that is available within the country. It is dangerous because it has been the training ground for thousands of lethal terrorists that are battle trained and ready to strike.
Therefore running away from what we broke is not a solution; it is waiting for the second shoe to drop!
The third and last so-called option is to divide the country into three separate entities; this option in my mind is almost funny.
First, we have no control over the streets of Baghdad never the less the whole country, so how can we enforce this solution on anybody?
Second, with the only source of wealth in Iraq (oil) unevenly distributed between the three regions how can this be an acceptable solution for the Sunnis and what incentive do they have to stop the violence?
I am afraid that the genius strategists that dreamed up Iraq as a democracy in a sea of tyrannies is creating once again unrealistic world that can never materialize, while our kids are losing their lives and our country is losing its wealth and influence.
I can imagine a single solution as an outcome of the conditions we created on the ground. It will not be a victory by any stretch of imagination but at least it is a way out!
Our government needs to talk to Iran. Regardless of what our strategists tell us Iran is the one power in Iraq today with the ability to end the chaos, it will not be clean, it will not be civilized but they can bring stability in Iraq if they have an interest in doing so.
America needs stability in Iraq so our troops can leave and cut the losses, strategically we need to insure the safety and continuity of the oil supplies. In addition, we cannot afford leaving a vacuum that can be a fertile ground for producing, training and sending more terrorists to destabilize the neighboring countries and terrorize the world further.
I am an Egyptian American born in Alexandria. I immigrated to the US in the late eighties, during this time lived in many places in US and Europe. I work as an IT manager and love it. I love to travel, it makes me feel young, and it awakes in me sense of adventure and curiosity. I love knowing people from different cultures; it never fails to amaze me how we all live in our little worlds that never meet. History is my second amazement, it always differ depending on who is winning, that leads me to my third hobby, politics is it history or human nature that is the culprit?
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