This is a VERY astute observation. Some analysts recognized

this same problem the very night that the NIE news broke. For instance, Bill Van Auken of the World Socialist Web Site wrote about it Tuesday night:

...The differences between the US intelligence estimate and the UN agency’s findings, however, were made clear in a statement by an IAEA official to the Times:

“Despite repeated smear campaigns, the IAEA has stood its ground and concluded time and again that since 2002 there was no evidence of an undeclared nuclear weapons program in Iran. It also validates the assessment of the director general that what the IAEA inspectors have seen in Iran represented no imminent danger.”

In other words, the UN agency found no evidence that the nuclear weapons program the NIE now claims was in operation until 2003 ever existed.

In this sense, the shift by the US intelligence agencies from expressing “high confidence” in 2005 that Iran was engaged in an attempt “to develop nuclear weapons,” to asserting with the same “high confidence” two years later that the Iranians had halted such a program in 2003 may represent the substitution of one phony pretext for war for another.

No evidence has ever been presented to substantiate the existence of a nuclear weapons program. And no description is offered in the current NIE of precisely what activities were halted in 2003....

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/dec2007/nie-d05.shtml

by Richard Mynick (2 articles, 3 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 1168 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 10:32:09 AM
 

Orders of Magnitude

Just over sixty years ago, a collection of mainly European scientific minds, working for the interests of the United States, found to the key to Pandora's Atomic Box.

Over time, science has opened many other mysterious doors to the physcial universe, most of which as an imature species we lack the good judgement to step through. However, it is mans nature to explore, and that exploration with sooner or later reveal a yet unknown aspect of phsyics whose destructive potentuial will dwarf the manipulation of the atom. What is that next order of magnitude?

No matter what it is, or how difficult to control, should it be the United States that dictates which other country may or may not explore the mysteries of the universe? Who is going to police, limit, or control future scientific understanding? 

It is scary knowing that any collection of human beings has the ability to unleash nuclear explosives, the US is the only country to have split the atom in anger (maddening as it is, we all have to be glad that we did)but an Islamic, Jihad endorsing, collection of emotionalized lunatics with nukes is waaaay more scary than the US with nukes....it's that ISLAM thing....

Planet ending weapons are going to happen. That's where we are in mankinds scientific time line. Did the NIE suddenly get a conscience? Did they release information to embarrass our fearless leader? Or, is Bush clever and secure enough to request such disinformation to be released as a time buying Trojan Horse diversion?

So many possibilities and no crystal ball. All I know for certan is that the world is going to get waaay more scary......no matter WHO sits in the oval office.

by James Strait (39 articles, 0 quicklinks, 7 diaries, 192 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 11:25:39 AM
 

Reasonable comment untill this

“the US is the only country to have split the atom in anger (maddening as it is, we all have to be glad that we did)but an Islamic, Jihad endorsing, collection of emotionalized lunatics with nukes is waaaay more scary than the US with nukes....it's that ISLAM thing...." At this point your ignorance of actual history and hysteria takes over.

Dropping the bomb in WW11 was a judgment call one that was questionable at the time should we be 'glad' the US did?  Did it save sufficient lives to justify the consequential misery and world paronoia ? Not  morally or numerically. It's even questionable that is saved large numbers of American lives or shortened the war by much.  How many allied soldiers later suffered from cancers as a result of the bomb? What was the calculation (most of the deaths were non combatants..people)? Why wasn't the bomb dropped on an island of soldiers a Battle group...it would have made the point just as well?

Then again victors always write the history... it’s happened, the genii is out we need to deal with it!

But this Islam drivel is what concerns me most. Firstly, It is not an ISLAM thing any more than it’s a CHRISTIAN thing Are you saying that killing a million people is okay so long as they're not American? It certainly appears so. Death in war obscene and particlarly so when it's non combatants. If war is the answer it must have been a imbecilic question. Are you hell bent going to heaven by helping (GWB/RC) to kill other people simply because they’re not of your faith or to control the profits on oil ? Of course not and neither are The vast majority of Muslims.who are essentially the same as you. People are people no matter where they are and are subject to the same ambitions, fears, and loyalties.

True there are rogue elements that espouse jihad but are you saying that there aren't significant elements in the US who aren't following a 'Christian' version of the same thing? Are you saying that their spokespersons "Cheney, Rumsfell et al" didn't/aren't terrifying the world with their version of toxic and lethal paranoia?

Additionally no Islamic country has Jihad or world hegemony as policy. History would suggest that the US does.

You are entitled to an opinion as are we all but if you insist upon vilifying others I would recommend that you consider a bit more objectivity lest you appear as a plain and simple bigot.

by Andris (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 531 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 6:20:24 PM
 

I Don't Trust

The NIE report - trojan horse, wolf in sheep, sneaking in the shadows - what ever.  Don't trust it, there's been no dialogue with Iran by Bushies' (as far as we know) and no talk = no communication.  As time goes by, the admin is pushing my country closer and closer to nuclear devastation.  We need to really pressure hard on Congress, our last resort...

by zephyr (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 64 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 12:44:14 PM
 

trojan horse/ red herring seems likely

No evidence has yet been produced that Iran ever had a nuke weapons program- now that the left and the fake "liberal" media have seized on this NIE to claim Iran is not a threat, it's being claimed that we're all in agreement; they had one, and they can restart it any time. 

 Look at these remarks made by Gates in Bahrain Dec 8, reported the LA Times

"Iranian leaders have seized on the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate released Monday, saying it is proof that Tehran's nuclear program is intended only for peaceful purposes and should undercut Washington's push for additional sanctions. But Gates, long viewed as one of the administration's more restrained voices on Iran policy, called such assertions "a watershed," saying that if Iran was suddenly embracing U.S. intelligence findings, it was tacitly agreeing to the estimate's other conclusions -- such as Iranian support for regional terrorist groups and its ambitions to develop ballistic missiles that threaten its neighbors. "In reality, you cannot pick and choose only the conclusions you like of this National Intelligence Estimate," Gates said in the conference's opening address. "The report expresses with greater confidence than ever that Iran did have a nuclear weapons program -- developed secretly, kept hidden for years, and in violation of its international obligations." 

by Better World Order (4 articles, 417 quicklinks, 27 diaries, 881 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 2:10:05 PM
 

hypocrisy on the march

"In reality, you cannot pick and choose only the conclusions you like of this National Intelligence Estimate," Gates said

Why not?  We do it all the time.

by Gregg Gordon (26 articles, 47 quicklinks, 15 diaries, 199 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 3:38:59 PM
 

As always the Devil is in the detail

When this report hit the fan I warned that we should all be cautious  with it.

I wondered then that all documents of this type are written in a context. It seems (ed) to me that there was something powerful going on behind the scenes (after all, careers would posibly be at stake). Given this Administration's myopic and absolutist attitudes, a report  as seemingly critical of the administration would have retrobutive consequences unless....

It would appear that you may have hit the mark.

It politics there is always an agenda  beyond the text.

by Andris (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 531 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 4:51:32 PM
 

Is the Iran NIE a Trojan Horse?

The trojan horse is the BS that Bushie is putting out about Iran to start another assault upon another middle east country.  The investigation should be of the MISS administration.

by kanawah (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 70 comments) on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 9:24:54 PM