As a result, Barack Obama’s highly unscrutinized position in the media has led to overinflated numbers in public polls. Consequently, it is far from inevitable (even unlikely) that his poll numbers will translate into votes when the caucuses and primaries kick off in January.
If not Hillary or Obama, then who?
Democrats have yet to truly consider the person who they’ll nominate. In poll conducted in Iowa on January 8th 2004 by KCCI, Howard Dean was polling at 29% to John Kerry’s 18%. Only a few weeks earlier Kerry’s poll numbers had been in the single-digits. Just eleven days later on January 19th John Kerry would win the Iowa caucuses and gained the momentum needed to win the nomination.
Hillary Clinton is only in the lead in Iowa by a net of 3.6% according analysis by RealClearPolitics. In a state like Iowa where anything can happen, anything will.
Traditionally, Iowans look for and vote for electability. There is a choice between kinds of candidates; those who will take strong leadership on social issues, and those who will lead the way out of Iraq.
John Edwards, the former Senator from North Carolina and former VP candidate, is one potential contender who can out on top. Unlike Clinton, Edwards’ message is clear, consistent and concise. He is a populist who has real solutions for social issues such as healthcare, social security, and poverty, and unlike Clinton, none of his plans are secret.
Edwards is likeable among women, (thanks to no small contribution from his wife), liberals, and independents, and has experience in running a national campaign; enough to inspire confidence behind a vote.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, is not as “cutting edge” in the realm of reforming healthcare, but he is the only candidate in either party with a plan that can end the war in Iraq by dividing the country into three autonomous regions; one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish, and giving all three self-determined rule, and establishing a federal government for national defense and the distribution of oil revenues. His plan has the backing of 75 US Senators and elements of the Iraqi government.
As Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has more experience in international relations than any other candidate. In regards to the current situation in Pakistan, both President Pervez Musharraf and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto called Joe Biden before calling President Bush to discuss the crisis.
Given the uncertain times that we live in where an international calamity can cost the lives of any number of American citizens, at home and elsewhere in the world, voters in Iowa and other early primary states just might get behind Biden as the best – and most electable – man for the job.
Still don’t believe me? Still think that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are too far ahead in the polls for anyone to come from behind? Just ask President Howard Dean.
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