What Can Be Said What Iran is seeking is an enrichment capability, and that capability would allow it eventually to produce nuclear weapons. Whether the Iranians intend to use that technology in the near term for that purpose is open to debate. But if they can develop a commercial/civilian enrichment capability, they will have what Israel calls the "nuclear option." What cannot be honestly said at this point is what Nicholas Burns, number three in the State Department, has been saying: "There is no doubt Iran is seeking nuclear weapons." You would think they would take care not to use the exact same phrases they used just four years ago making spurious charges regarding "Iraq's nuclear program."
One can argue, as French President Jacques Chirac did in a recent moment of candor, that Iran's possession of a nuclear weapon would not be "very dangerous," because Iran is well aware that if it fired it at Israel, Tehran would be immediately "razed." And the post-WWII experience saw mutual deterrence work for 45 years. But the suggestion that the Israeli government try to relax into the concept of deterrence in view of the formidable nuclear arsenal Israel already has, tends to fall on deaf ears. And, given memories of the Holocaust and the ranting of Iran's current president, this is in some degree understandable.
But there is an equally compelling reason to dissuade Iran from going nuclear. And that is the nuclear proliferation to which that would inevitably lead in the Middle East. The U.S. needs to engage in direct talks with Tehran; we do have common interests and concerns, and we could work toward devising ways to alleviate Israeli fears. But, given the testosterone and myopia that color the Bush administration's behavior in that region, appeals to those realities and approaches seem to fall on deaf ears.
Congress Must Act Please, Senator Rockefeller, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear situation is said to be targeted for completion in March. That's too late; you need to read it before the bombs and missiles start falling on Iran.
An attack on Iran would bring catastrophe. Americans would want to know our reasons for doing so. "Explosively formed penetrators" are unlikely to persuade. Nor will a nuclear threat to the U.S. 10 years hence be found convincing. Iran poses no immediate threat to America. It is right that we be concerned about the security of Israel, but the burden of proof should be on those who argue that deterrence cannot work in that situation.
Most important, bilateral talks with Iran are a sine qua non. Given the circumstances, including heightened tensions and the danger of miscalculation, avoiding face-to-face encounters makes little sense.
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in Washington, DC. During his 27-years as a CIA analyst, he chaired NIEs: he is now on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
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