Both will do anything to maintain their own spheres of influence for that purpose. Vietnam already acts as a regional powerbroker when it comes to the domestic and foreign affairs of Cambodia and Laos, which are states with much less clout.
It is not at all unlikely that Vietnam will attempt to rebuff growing Chinese ambitions across East Asia in order to ensure that its own population can survive the coming economic and social pressures.
The U.S. Secretary of State has recently hinted that Washington will help India to become a global power. Washington wants to balance one Asian giant against the other, and to counter a much stronger China by the year 2020.
Yet, the emerging geopolitical trends hint at another pattern of development, one that will not just involve major and upcoming powers in international competition for power and influence, but the large, populous states of the current third world that may become increasingly more ambitious, perhaps even reckless, in pressing their demands.
In particular, Indonesia or the Philippines could eschew their current political connections if they are unable to satisfy their increasingly hard-to-meet needs. Indeed, a complex geopolitical re-alignment may invite players other than the U.S., China or Japan to compete for influence over these second-tier regional players.
If the smaller countries consider the current international mechanisms and laws as unsuitable in dealing with the unique pressures they face—growing populations, and the economic growth needed to keep their publics employed, schooled and secure, then they will force a new political paradigm in solving their problems.
This possible development demands that Washington, and its allies in Asia to prepare not just for the more obvious geopolitical challenges of China and India, but also to prepare for the long-term difficulties and uncertainties in dealing with other regional players.
This new kind of multipolarity will generate both challenges and opportunities. South Korea should engage the U.S. and other allies to design a far-reaching policy that plans 20 years in advance and encourages more peaceful problem solving in an increasingly complex Asia and the Pacific region.
1 | 2
