Talk about a witches brew. When you add the nationalist rebellion in Baluchistan and the simmering conflict with India over Kashmir and a growing populist resentment of Musharraf, especially in the Muslim streets, over his love affair with Mr. Bush and the situation becomes only bleaker.
And there are serious implications over Musharraf’s recent suspension of the constitution and his declaration of a state of emergency for the Bush Administration. For one thing Washington and President Bush cannot feign indifference any longer. Washington must be very worried about the possibility of a nuclear-armed Pakistan falling into the political hands of one of its many enemies who hate both President Bush and “Busharraf.” That is a nightmare scenario that is aft to give Mr. Bush the hibbie-jibbies.
Yet the problem for Washington is that it cannot appear to be backing Musharraf too strongly on this one because his actions run counter to presumed American support for democracy and a rejection of the kinds of dictatorial maneuvers that Musharraf has been doing of late. Military dictatorship is no substitute for democracy and President Musharraf has succumbed to the same kinds of corruption that he’s accused both Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif of in the past.
And too, any open United States support for Musharraf will only add fuel to the fire and increase popular anger at the United States as a hypocrite and supporter of a military dictatorship. In the eyes of his countrymen and the Muslim world while he rules with an iron hand in Pakistan Musharraf will be viewed simply as a supine pawn of the United States, a willing water boy, doing the bidding of his masters in Washington – something that hew wants desperately to avoid.
Musharraf must be playing for time and must know that general elections that were scheduled for January 2008 is now clearly out. But he’s in a Catch 22 here because he must know that the longer he imposes martial law is the more isolated that his regime will become and the more anger and resentment in Pakistan itself. Musharraf is sitting on a powder keg with a lit fuse and he knows it. He’s already tried to reinterpret the Pakistani Constitution by seeking to run for the presidency for a third time and perhaps this precipitous state of emergency was in anticipation of the Supreme Court’s ruling against him.
So in the most high-handed manner imaginable Musharraf removed and arrested the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice and replaced him with his own hand-picked crony. That move effectively puts Musharraf at odds with Ms. Bhutto because she has been championing the issue of democracy in Pakistan. For the United States this ends the shot-gun marriage between Bhutto and Musharraf even before the honeymoon started. It also puts in doubt her viability as a key political players in so volatile of circumstances.
For Washington watching this dictatorship implode and crumble and unable to do anything to stop it is something that must be exceedingly galling indeed. President Bush has long touted General Musharraf as a strong partner in his campaign against global terrorism. The United States president has ignored Musharraf’s spotty democratic credentials and the fact that he came to power in 1999 in a coup and reneged on his promise to give up his position as army chief while serving as president.
In fact, part of the present problem is his maneuvers and antics to retain both positions in a new configuration ahead of the now jeopardized January 2008 elections. Also, Mr. Bush’s enthusiastic and glowing praise for Musharraf in the context of the war on terror is disingenuous at best. After billions of US dollars and a mountain of promises Musharraf’s approach has been one of fits and starts. He’s delivered only a few Al Qaeda suspects and has negotiated peace agreements with the rambunctious Waziristan province and pledged to pull back the army. Intelligence sources say that his area is the stronghold of Al Qaeda and the Taliban – two sworn enemies of the United States.
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