Another war for oil over the horizon; With China on the other side, in Africa?

The big, new kid in the neighborhood, displacing Egypt, Russia, and the U.S., is China. Not really new to the area but newly voracious for oil. Sudan is not the only place in Africa that China has established a major presence in its quest for oil and other resources as well as for markets. China continues to invest billions of dollars in many sub-Saharan countries using foreign exchange gleaned from their exports. Since 1996 China has signed on to approximately 30 oil and gas deals, involving 14 African countries, ranging from building refineries to importing crude oil. They are pushing hardest to control the oil of Sudan and have helped build the Sudanese military.

During the Clinton administration Osama bin Laden was based in Khartoum and Sudan was considered a major backer of terrorist activities. In 1996 the U.S. provided $20 million in military equipment – supposedly non-lethal – through Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda – to support groups trying to overthrow the Khartoum government. This included support materiel for the Sudan People's Liberation Army of the south. During this tumultuous time American oil companies moved out of Sudan and China moved in.

China has had little regard for human rights issues in the countries in which they wish to expand their interests. They have supported tyrants such as Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. When questioned about this, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong is quoted as saying "Business is business." The phrase and the attitude are borrowed directly from 1890s capitalists. This has paid off for the Chinese on a short-term basis but may not do so in the long run.

Much of China's activity in Africa can be treated as normal commercial competition although big-power relationships are involved. Such activities need not lead to hostilities. In Sudan the situation is different. Talks between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the south and the Khartoum government broke off in September. The SPLM has promised to start civil disobedience protests on January 9 unless there is more progress on revenue sharing and the independence referendum. Some SPLM leaders now talk of allying with Darfur rebels in a potential assault on the Khartoum government. Conflict is likely.

Let us hope China's leaders and our leaders are exerting themselves to head off such conflict. Otherwise we will be pulled into supporting opposite sides in another very nasty war very soon.

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