-
One or more naval incidents in which US warships halt the passage of Iranian flag vessels near Iranian territorial waters, provoking some response from these or other Iranian vessels;
-
This in turn permits the US government to characterize these events as hostile acts of war against US enforcement of a Security Council resolution, ordering the US military to react to alleged Iranian actions, promptly escalating from in locus to theater-wide attacks on Iranian naval assets at sea;
-
These are followed, whether there is a significant Iranian response or not, by operations directed at Iranian naval bases;
-
The relatively small US attacking forces directed toward the naval bases are defended by a far larger force that conducts wide-ranging attacks on Iran’s air defense systems;
-
This then creates an event platform from which long planned operations against Iranian industrial and nuclear facilities would be undertaken.
Gravest Consequences
Should this or equivalent events occur, the potential for destabilizing US domestic and international consequences of extreme gravity would be substantial, approaching near certainty. This nominally unattractive and reckless gamble for unclear objectives would fit Bush's pattern of governance, whereby poorly planned and managed military operations are undertaken in pursuit of a mostly secret agenda, justified by a series of ever changing public rationales. Given the risks, it is unlikely war with Iran would be undertaken just for a chance to create conditions in the Middle East that lock in future policy options, as he has in domestic policy with a massive deficit. Instead, given the stakes, Bush would be expected to attack not only his foreign enemies, but at the same time strike at his domestic foes under the cover of the resulting emergency.
The more significant Iran's response or the more disruptive the economic and political consequences, the more likely it would be combined with or be followed by a formal declaration by Bush of a national emergency, possibly affecting US national elections, resulting in a de facto coup d'état and the most serious destabilization of the United States since the civil war. While these risks would normally result in swift dismissal of such a plan of action, unfortunately such an attack on Iran would be consistent with Bush's history of striking out at those who impede or criticize him as well as his willingness to take radical actions because of an apparent failure to appreciate the institutional and systemic costs involved.
Backing Away from the Brink
Finally, this is admittedly an extreme assessment. However, given Bush wants to attack Iran and does, these appear to be the likely consequences. To further assess their likelihood, ask the question: If Bush wants to attack Iran, who is to stop him? Not the United States Congress; not the United Nations; not the courts; not pubic opinion, nor the press. The one chance, however slight, of stopping Bush would rest almost entirely with the British government, if Parliament became aware of the plan and renounced it prior to the commencement of hostilities.
While nothing can be done to prevent a completely fabricated incident, clearly Iran would be expected to reduce the threat of attacks upon itself by the following:
-
Never issue any threats against the US or it allies, and only assert Iran would defend itself if attacked;
-
Should its ships be challenged, Iran might halt the vessel at sea and offer to be boarded by UN inspectors only, claiming that US personnel might try to "plant" items on Iranian vessels and/or later use fabricated videos, or that an armed boarding party might precipitate a dangerous confrontation;
-
As the crisis develops, Iran might order all its vessels and aircraft either to return to their bases or to disperse away from the confrontation area as well as undertake other detectable preparations to indicate Iran anticipates an attack, hoping to signal the White House, via the Pentagon's real time assessments, likely significant cost to the US of an attack;
-
Publicly warn about fabricated incidents prior to any naval confrontation, and repeat these warnings upon the commencement of any confrontation;
-
Warn recipient nations of likely long term disruption to oil and gas deliveries;
-
Undertake diplomatic efforts, including convening the UN Security Council to address US violations of the sanction's limits.
