NSA DIRECTOR ODOM DISSECTS IRAQ BLUNDERS

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Iraq "will have some sort of dictatorship- either a highly disciplined party or military organization. We just don't have fragmented societies with such deep sectarian and ethnic divisions that are also nice stable liberal systems. Look at Canada with just two ethnic groups, that teeters occasionally. Where is Saddam when you need him?"

On escaping Iraq: "Once it became obvious I was getting out, I would go to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Turkey, and Iran and say, 'I invite you to this meeting to handle stabilization issues as I get out.' I would have a secret chamber with Iran and say, 'You hate the Taliban, we hate the Taliban; you want to sell oil, we need to buy oil; your alliance with Russia is very unnatural; if you want to discuss the West Bank- I'll talk about it but won't give anything away.' "

" 'Oh, and by the way, I'm taking the nuclear issue off the table. You want nukes, have them. You live in a bad neighborhood.' There's no single diplomatic move that would so revolutionize our position up there."

In North Korea Odom anticipates a collapse. "That regime is very much like the Soviet regime, they do not transform, they degenerate. When the leadership loses capacity or will to blood or terrorize the population, it collapses." He sees a sudden reunification of the Koreas, followed by tensions with ancient overseer Japan. "Those 2 countries don't like each other."

The Koreans say, 'The Americans are crazy.'- just look at the public opinion polls and attitude of the South Korean government. Kim Jong Il knows just what to do to get the US to spin up in the air 3 times and bribe him on the way down. I see us on autopilot on a self-destructive path. China's slowly replacing us. They're becoming the peacemaker- they're the ones who use their hegemony to settle things constructively."

Odom sees ominous parallels with Vietnam. "How did we get in the (Vietnam) war? Phony intelligence over the Tonkin Gulf affair. Once we got in, it was not legitimate to go back and talk about strategic purpose, we were only allowed to talk about how we were doing- the tactics. We would not go back and ask whether this was in our interests. I see the pattern so clearly here. We have Iraqization- if they stand up, we'll stand down. Training troops is not the problem. Political consolidation, not military consolidation, is the issue. Unless troops know to whom they should be loyal, they'll fight some days, not others (and maybe against the wrong side)."

"If they (military power) get ahead of political consolidation, we know what happens then- a military coup."

"This was imminently foreseeable by my poly sci colleagues who did not stand up and speak out loudly enough at the absurdity of spreading democracy when we're really talking about Constitutionalism. Creating Constitutions- we don't know how to do that! (at least not for 220 years) We are essentially paralyzed and can't do much in the world cause we are bogged down in Iraq."

"The declinists wake us up, so that we avoid decline; but the endists urge us to celebrate as we drift towards disaster. Those who urged us to invade Iraq are endists; I'm a declinist. but only to revive my strategic optimism."

Michael Hammerschlag's commentary and articles (HAMMERNEWS.com) have appeared in Seattle Times, Providence. Journal, Columbia Journalism Review, Hawaii Advertiser, Capital Times, MediaChannel; and Moscow News, Tribune, Times, and Guardian. He spent 2 years in Russia from 1991-94, while the Empire collapsed and multiple wars raged in the Islamic southern republics. hammerschlag@bigfoot.com

NSA Director Gen. William Odom -new (REALAUDIO) Dissects strategic blunders of Iraq, escape strategies, geopolitical consequences, civil war, Iran attack, Korea- April 7 - 52 min- Brown Univ., Watson Institute INFO excellent
MY QUESTIONS on IRAN BOMBING (realaudio) + @ 2:03 HANDICAPPING IRAQ CIVIL WAR - 7:14 min total WindowsMedia

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Michael Hammerschlag's commentary and articles (HAMMERNEWS.com) have appeared in Seattle Times, Providence Journal, Columbia Journalism Review, Hawaii Advertiser, Capital Times, MediaChannel; and Moscow News, Tribune, Times, and Guardian. He spent 2 (more...)

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