Congress' Job Approval Rating

• 75% of the likely voters disapprove of Congress versus only 23% who approve, but again the intensity of those feelings are remarkable.
  
  
• 43% "strongly disapprove" of the job Congress is doing versus only 4% who "strongly approve. That is a stagerring ratio of 10 to 1.

How do likely voters plan to vote in upcoming Congressional elections?

• Among "likely voters" 56% say they plan to vote for Democrats versus 37% who say they plan to vote for Republicans, a very strong 19-point Democratic advantage. But again, the fine print suggests an even stronger Democratic advantage.
  
• Of likely voters who will "definitely" or "probably" vote Democratic, only 11% say they might change their minds.
  
• On the other hand, 18% of likely voters who currently plan to vote Republican say they still might change their minds.
  
• Even if all of the Democratic leaners who say they might change their minds actually did so and switched to the Republicans, and none of the fence-sitting Republicans ended up switching (and the probability of that happening is virtually nil), The Democrats would still come out ahead with 50% of the votes to 44% for the Republicans. That suggests that even a stampede of second thoughts about voting for the Democratic House candidates would still leave the Democrats with a solid, statistically significant advantage over the Republicans.
  
• Regardless of who they plan to vote for, likely voters prefer a Congress controlled by the Democrats to one controlled by the Replicans by a margin of 55% to 37%.

The Bush Factor

• 33% of likely voters say their vote for Congress will at least in part be to "show opposition to President Bush."
  
• 15% of likely voters say their vote for Congress will at least in part be to "show support for President Bush."

Lots of Anger, Little Enthusiasm

Asked: "Which comes closest to your feelings about the Bush Administration?"

• 65% of likely voters expressed dissatisfaction, but nearly two-thirds of those, 40%, expressed "anger."
  
• 37% of likely voters indicated they were satisfied, but less than one-third of those, only 12%, said they were "enthusiastic."

Asked the same question about the Republican Leadership in Congress:

• 65% of likely voters said they are dissatisfied, and nearly half of those, 32%, are "angry."
  
• Only 34% said they were satisfied and less than one in five of those, 6%, said they were "enthusiastic."
  
• 63% of likely voters indicated that "recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress" were "moderately" to "extremely" important and would influence how they voted in Congressional elections.
  
• Only 23% indicated that these disclosures were "not at all important."

Likely Voters on the Issues

Issues favored by the Republicans rank far down the list of issues that are important to likely voters. Issues considered "Extremely/Very Important" in declining order are:

• Iraq: 90%
  
• The economy: 89%
  
• Health Care: 84%
  
• Terrorism: 80%
  
• Social Security: 77%
  
• Political Corruption: 76%
  
• Taxes: 75%
  
• Gas Prices: 65%
  
• Immigration: 61%
  
• Same-sex Marriage: 40%

Democrats are the Party Likely Voters Trust to do a Better Job

On virtually every issue likely voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to do a better job:

• Terrorism: Democrats 43%; Republicans: 42%
  
• Protecting the country: Democrats 45%; Republicans 42%
  
• Handling the situation in Iraq: Democrats 51%; Republicans 36%
  
• Handling the economy: Democrats 52%; Republicans 39%
  
• Taxes: Democrats 47%; Republicans 41%
  
• Health Care: Democrats 58%; Republicans 30%
  
• Social Security: Democrats 55%; Republicans 32%
  
• Same-sex marriage: Democrats 46%; Republicans 36%
  
• Immigration: Democrats 45%; Republicans 37%
  
• Gas prices: Democrats 52%; Republicans 29%
  
• Political corruption: Democrats 43%; Republicans 25%

You may recall that I titled this post: "A Democratic Romp; Or a Stolen Election?" By way of a postscript allow me to point out another AP/Ipsos poll released last week but almost totally ignored by the mainstream media. That poll interviewed 1,000 adults in each of nine countries including the United States and asked: "How confident are you that votes in [the United States] elections are counted accurately?" The findings for residents of the United States are extremely interesting:

• Very confident: 26 percent
  
• Somewhat confident: 40 percent
  
• Not very confident: 20 percent
  
• Not at all confident: 14 percent

The actual poll is hidden behind a subscription wall, but of the 9 countries surveyed (Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States), only Italians expressed less confidence in the integrity of the vote count than Americans.

Based on the AP/Ipsos poll regarding likely voters and the general elections as well as other polls that suggest similar conclusions, I see no way the Republican Party can maintain control of the House of Representatives... unless, that is, they get a strong assist from the likes of Diebold and ES&S.

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