A Ned Lamont Landslide?

VOTER TURNOUT FAVORS LAMONT:

The June 2006 Quinnipiac poll suggested that "likely Democratic Primary voters" were more likely to vote for Lamont than for Lieberman (a 25-point Lieberman lead among all Democrats dropped to a 15-point lead among likely Primary voters).

In the July 2006 Quinnipiac poll 68% of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats were determined to be "likely Primary voters." That percentage far exceeds the actual likely turnout. Of 22 U.S. primaries held as of July 16th, the average turnout was only 20%. The average Connecticut turnout in that state's last four competitive primaries was 23%. It is a pretty safe bet that only about one in three respondents determined by Quinnipiac to be "likely voters" will actually turn out to vote in the August 8th primary. The evidence suggests that those who do will be more favorably disposed toward Lamont than Lieberman. If so, the July Quinnipiac poll probably understates Lamont's Primary Day advantage over Lieberman.

The conventional wisdom is that the Connecticut Primary will be a squeaker. I think not. I believe that analysis of the most recent poll along with the 5-poll trends suggests an August landslide for Ned Lamont.

What of November? The Quinnipiac poll suggests that Lieberman, running as an independent, wins a 3-way election in November by a healthy 23-point margin over Ned Lamont (Rasmussen, on the other hand calls it a 40/40 dead-heat). Again, I think not. Those polls mean little given the likely growth of Lamont's name-recognition between now and November, and a decisive primary victory by Lamont and the accompanying publicity such a victory would bring would also likely have a major impact on the subsequent polls and on the fall election. One need only look at the last several Connecticut Quinnipiac polls to see how dramatically the landscape can change in a relatively short period of time. Will Lieberman even run as an independent if he suffers a humiliating defeat in the primary? Only 22% of Connecticut voters are registered Republicans, hardly a base that can sweep Lieberman to a November victory, even if they vote overwhelmingly for him.

My prediction: Lamont wins BIG in August and goes on to win in November!

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