May 4, 2006 at 23:02:19

New Keystone Poll spells trouble for Bob Casey Jr.

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By Jpol (about the author) Page 2 of 2 page(s)

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Have Casey's numbers bottomed out? The trend lines suggest otherwise.

Virtually 100% of the voters who formed an opinion of Casey since the last Keystone poll in February 2006 have decided that they are now unfavorably disposed toward him or are undecided. His favorable rating remained unchanged.

As Casey's unfavorable's increased, a statistically significant 5-point shift occurred toward Santorum in a still-hypothetical Casey v Santorum Senate race.
38% remain in the don't know enough about Casey to have an opinion column. If the trend continues on its current path, the majority of those voters will opt for Santorum as they learn more about Casey.

Conclusions:

The voters are tired of Rick Santorum. They want a new Senator.
Casey is not the new Senator they want!

The official Democratic leadership line that only Casey can beat Santorum in November now appears to ring pretty hollow. The developing trends suggest that Santorum will catch and pass Casey, perhaps months before the November election, despite the evidence that Santorum is a very vulnerable candidate. The mounting evidence would seem to suggest that Casey is even more vulnerable than Santorum.

Postscript:

Ranking of the favorable ratings of those Polled by Keystone:

Ed Rendell: 48%

Rick Santorum: 39%

George Bush: 33%

Bob Casey Jr,: 30%

Lynn Swann: 29%

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