The commodity currencies are in a different earth zone. My analysis has stated that the prominent older nations, the so-called industrialized nations, will not raise their official interest rates. They will only talk, since their banks are insolvent and their government debt securities are caught in asset bubbles. The Euro Central Bank is the most likely to raise interest rates, but only as part of a more diverse strategy to split the EU itself. The German nation has been drained by $40 billion per year for each of the last ten years, and resentment is strong. The Australians and Norwegians hiked their official interest rates in recent weeks. They have commodities to fortify their national economies, and do not concentrate on the sale of inked paper in tainted export.
The Paradigm Shift is toward a more legitimate group of currencies. It is toward currencies backed by hard assets. The currency basket from the Intl Monetary Fund seems like the temporary device. It is actually a Straw Man carrying a straw basket. Before the grand shift is complete to at least one hard asset currency, the doomed currencies will be bound together with IMF twine. The bankers believe the IMF straw basket will give them the power to control the decline of the US Dollar, or protect themselves from that decline. The strategy might succeed. It will surely enable the gold price to climb versus all currencies. Gold will be like Moses in a basket as a baby, except moving upstream. The candidates for hard asset currencies are the New Russian Ruble, the Gulf Dinar, maybe even a New Nordic Euro. The process will take time, as some bumpy roads lie ahead, and military protection is required.
EXIT STRATEGY & WEIMAR DOLLARS
No exit strategy is available either to the Untied States or the British. The US Fed conducted its helpless display to announce the US Economy remains weak with slack capacity, and that an ultra-low official interest rate would be firmly fixed for a long time still. No surprise here! What they did not say is that, like with Japan, they have no possible exit plan. Now almost twenty years later, Japan is stuck with a near 0% rate. If the US Fed raises interest rates, they pop the biggest financial bubble on the planet, US Treasury Bonds. The US Fed is further hindered since Wall Street is playing the Dollar Carry Trade. They are borrowing 0% money in US$ and investing in commodities like crude oil and US stock indexes. Other players are using the free borrowed money to invest in gold. In fact, just today St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated his expectation of no further US Fed rate hike until year 2012.
The Exit Strategy will lead to a road paved by Weimar Dollars.The world's major financial centers outside the central bank accomplices are ditching their dollars. They are diversifying out of US$-based bonds of all types. They are accumulating gold. Some are investing in facilities that are vertically integrated with commodity production, transport, and trade. Like China! The US Govt. is investing, by contrast, in clunker cars, still more houses, dead car industry, spoiled AIG insurer, a mortgage cesspool Fannie Mae, pork projects (see unused airport in Johnstown Pennsylvania), and a dubious war on terrorism. Quite a contrast! With the news spreading globally about tungsten-laced gold bars, or actually gold-plated tungsten bars, the reputation of the Untied States will grow more tarnished.
In time, the only friend of the US Treasury to finance its steady stream of Trillion$ in debt will be the Printing Press. Without the printed money to pull off the auctions, they would be utter loud failures. Without the US Dollar Swap Facility, foreign central banks would not have funds to use in Treasury auctions. Without the funds from foreign US Agency Mortgage Bonds sold to the US Fed for freshly printed US Dollars, the foreign central banks would not have funds to use in Treasury auctions. Without the Permanent Market Operations used to scoop up all the unsold bonds stuck with primary dealers, one week routinely after each auction, dealers would be unable to participate in the next Treasury auctions. They would suffer from bond constipation. The key event in the next few months, pushed by the foreign disgust at fraud more pervasive than ever conceived by ordinary man, is THE EXPOSURE OF MONETIZATION for support of the US Treasury Bond. The debt monetization remains a dirty secret, well concealed by the US Govt. and the financial press. What comes is isolation, and to those isolated, their best friend will be a Printing Press.
Exposure comes, with detrimental impact to the US Dollar. The resulting tarnish to the US Govt. image and Wall Street reputation will be reflected on the US Dollar. In time it will fully resemble a Third World currency. The process will take time, but hyper-inflation is coming to US shores. Where are the Deflation Knuckleheads who tended to dominate the web journals last spring and summer, in incredibly dense vapid clueless fashion??? What a tremendously misguided group. They follow religiously the deteriorating economies, miss the twin storm, ignore the power of the unprecedented monetary inflation, and somehow overlook the entire global movement if not revolt against the US Dollar in a grand Paradigm Shift. They represent the worst economists in the alternative media on web journals. Their tunnel vision on the falling asset price effect left them vulnerable to missing a tsunami on their own doorstep, incredibly. They still do not offer an explanation of why crude is at the $80 price level again. Supplies of oil are nowhere as great as the false US Govt. statistics indicate, but the entire world is hedging at the same time against the US$ with oil assets.
OBAMA VISITS THE LEAD US CREDITOR
During the president's visit to Beijing, Obama has been reminded of who the master creditor is. It is China. In public no discussions are made of the Chinese concentrated pressure in London at the metal exchange. Taboo topic. The US President has slipped on three key topics, with mention of the human rights issue, currency manipulation, and the future of communism. The US has no place to lecture any other nation. China is actually moving toward capitalism, while America has forgotten what capitalism is, and marches with right foot in fascist mud and left foot in communism mud.
The Chinese serve as the spearhead to displace the US Dollar from its perch as the global reserve currency. They realize fully that the battle that must be won is over the Gold-Dollar fiery rod. The Chinese might be orchestrating a gold price move to 1150 and a silver price move to 19 just to slap the US face a little during the state visit. Creo que si!
Jim
Willie is editor of The Golden Jackass which is designed to inform and instruct in
the complex ways of gold, currencies, bonds, interest rates, stocks,
commodities, futures, derivatives, and the world economy, with no respect shown
for inept bankers and economists, whose policies and practices contribute
toward the slow motion degradation, if not destruction, of the financial world.
1 | 2


