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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 6/28/14

What Democrats Can Learn From Thad Cochran: Turnout, Turnout, Turnout!

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In the first primary, Cochran battled McDaniel for right-wing votes, emphasizing his pro-gun record and social consevatism. In the runoff, however, Cochran switched to a more mainstream message that emphasized his support for federal programs that aid Mississippi and especially for education.

The senior senator also, as The New York Times reported, "attacked Mr. McDaniel for his vows of austerity."

"Those attacks seemed to work with voters -- at least enough to spook Democrats, and even some Republicans, who are accustomed to the protection and seniority of a long line of Congress members going back almost 100 years, including Senators John C. Stennis, James Eastland and Trent Lott and Representatives Sonny Montgomery and Jamie L. Whitten," explained the Times.

Voters like Jeanie Munn, of Hattiesburg, came to the conclusion that -- whatever they might think of Cochran -- they needed to get to the polls to stop McDaniel and what they saw as "a threat to the state."

Of course, McDaniel and his "Tea Party" allies cried foul --refusing even to concede the close race. Sarah Palin objected to the turnout "shenanigans" that saved Cochran. Their griping was rooted in the fact that their faction lost a "sure thing" election because the electorate grew.

The growth in voter turnout on Tuesday helped a mainstream conservative Republican win on Tuesday. But similar growth could help Democrats win in November.

By most measures, 2014 is going to be a tough year for Democrats. They are defending a lot more competitive Senate seats than the Republicans, as this is the election when senators elected on the Barack Obama wave of 2008 are up for re-election. They also face the daunting task of trying to win House seats that were redrawn to favor GOP candidates after the "Republican wave" election of 2010.

If turnout levels remain the same in 2014 as they were in 2010 -- roughly 38 percent of the voting age population cast ballots that year, according to the United States Election Project at George Mason University -- this could be another "Republican wave" year.

If voting levels increase, however, Democratic prospects improve dramatically as they didin 2012, when voting-age population turnout was closer to 54 percent.

No one expects that 2014 turnout will rival that of 2012.

But Thad Cochran has proven that focusing on turnout -- with resources, organizing and a targeted message that highlights the threat posed by austerity-prone Republicans -- can significantly increase voter participation in critical races. And that participation can change the electoral calculus.

If Democrats learn that lesson, they could rewrite the rules of the 2014 general election -- just as Cochran rewrote the rules of the Mississippi runoff race.
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Copyright 2014 thenation.com -- distributed by Agence Global

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John Nichols, a pioneering political blogger, has written the Online Beat since 1999. His posts have been circulated internationally, quoted in numerous books and mentioned in debates on the floor of Congress.

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