In this volatile situation, the beleaguered Islamabad government has opted to launch a new military operation in the tribal territories that will have serious consequences for the new government that has yet to complete its 100 days on July 6. In the past, the unpopular military operations in FATA resulted in a spate of bombings in Pakistan’s major cities claiming hundreds of casualties. Military operation in FATA was one of the major reason for the unpopularity of President Musharraf who is seen as killing his own people at the behest of Washington.
Peace in Pakistan’s tribal territories is directly linked to the situation in Afghanistan. To borrow Charles Dunbar, professor of international relations at the Boston University and former U.S. diplomat, the violence in Afghanistan highlighted the need for regional and Western governments to seek political solutions to a conflict that shows no sign of easing.
Similarly, the unilateral use of force to address the situation in the tribal areas is not an answer to the problem. This is especially true of the FATA region as is clear from historical evidence. The most significant missing factor in the strategy to deal with the situation in the tribal areas has been the effort to use military deployment as a means of political negotiation and facilitator of economic development.
However, the problem is complicated by the fact that Pakistan does not have a free hand in the matter. US pressures make it difficult to unite opinion and work towards a common goal. All major political parties including the main coalition partner in the PPP government, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, and the Jamat-e-Islami and the Pakistan Tehrik-Insaf, have already spoken out bitterly against the US role.
It is not clear how the militants would react to any new military operation. If a new wave of bombing begins, it will surely destabilize the fig leaf of democracy manufactured after the February 2008 elections.
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