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According to JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley economists, America's economy "will bounce back in (Q I) after plunging defense spending and dwindling inventory growth" hurt Q IV.
Not according to economist John Williams . Recovery is illusory, he says. It's fake. Phony government numbers conceal weakness. Growth hasn't occurred since 2006/2007.
Earlier Williams said:
"Indeed, the "recovery' is an illusion that has been created as a direct result of methodological changes in government inflation reporting of recent decades."
They "resulted in an artificial lowering of official rates of inflation. The faux growth problem is in the use of understated inflation estimates in deflating a number of economic series."
"Major economic series that have no underlying pricing base - such as housing starts, payroll employment and consumer confidence - correspondingly do not require inflation adjustment to put them on a consistent theoretical basis with the concept of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP."
"Those series confirm a history of business activity in recent years that shows a plunge in the economy from 2006/2007 into late-2008/mid-2009, followed by a period of protracted, low-level stagnation, or bottom-bouncing, instead of 'recovery.' "
Williams expects double-dip recession in 2013. It likely began in 2012 Q II or III, he believes.
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