But the Syrian civil war has not gone as planned, and, despite predictions that Assad would quickly fall, his government is hanging on. It is the forces fighting him that are spinning out of control. Ankara's allies in the Gulf -- in particular Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- are funding Islamic extremists fighting in Syria, who are turning the war into Sunnis Vs. Shiites. The Assad government is dominated by the Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Those groups are now also destabilizing Lebanon and Iraq by attacking Shiite communities in both countries. Most these extremists are contemptuous of Turkey's Islamic government.
From the U.S. point of view, Turkey is no longer a completely reliable ally. It is quarreling with Israel, Washington's number one friend in the region. It has fallen out with Saudi Arabia and most of the GCC -- the new government in Qatar is an exception -- and has essentially broken off relations with the U.S.-supported military government in Egypt. Most of all, it is developing ties with Iran, and both countries are suddenly issuing joint communiques calling for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian civil war.
Rather than joining in the newly forged Saudi-Israeli-Egypt alliance against Iran, Turkey is feuding with all three countries and breaking bread with Shiia-dominated governments in Teheran and Damascus.
In short, from Washington's point of view, Erdogan has gone off the reservation.
Seen from this perspective, Erdogan's suspicions do not seem all that bizarre. Despite denials that the U.S. and its allies are not involved, and that the corruption issues is entirely an internal Turkish affair, Washington and its allies do have a dog in this fight.
For instance, one target of the corruption probe is Halkbank, which does business with Iran. "We asked Halkbank to cut its links with Iran," U.S. Ambassador Ricciardone reportedly told European Union (EU) ambassadors. "They did not listen to us." Did the U.S. influence Turkish prosecutors to single out Halkbank?
If Erdogan falls and the Gulen forces take over, it is almost certain that Turkey will re-align itself in the region. If that happens, expect Ankara to patch up its fight with Tel Aviv and Cairo, chill relations with Iran, and maybe even go silent on a diplomatic solution in Syria. The free market section of the Turkish economy will expand, and western investments will increase. And the current roadblocks in the way of Turkey's membership in the EU may vanish.
Whether this will be good for Turkey or the region is another matter. The Gulf monarchies are not nearly as stable as they look. The military government in Egypt will always be haunted by the ghost of the Arab Spring. Israel's continued settlement building is gradually turning it into an international pariah. And, in the end, the West does not really care about democracy, as the U.S.'s endorsement of the military coup in Egypt made clear.
Erdogan's political instincts seem to have deserted him. His brutal suppression of last summer's demonstrations polarized the country, and his response to the corruption investigations has been to fire or reassign hundreds of police and prosecutors. He has also gone after the media. Turkey has jailed more journalists than Iran and China combined.
There is little doubt but that the Prime Minister has played fast and loose with zoning laws and environmental regulations in order to allow his allies in the construction industry to go on a tear. But Erdogan hardly invented corruption, and the question about the investigations is, why now?
Maybe the charge that this Turkish corruption scandal is orchestrated is just paranoia, but, then, paranoids do have enemies.
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