The al-Maliki government in Baghdad is an American puppet government, and every Iraqi voter knows it. His recent streak of independence will not change that, and he certainly does not instill confidence among the Shiites, Sunnis, or Kurds. With the support of American firepower it is very difficult to believe that Nouri al-Maliki is the man who will finally bring freedom and democracy to this war-torn land.
History is not on Iraq's side either. Formerly known as Mesopotamia, the people who live in modern-day Iraq have not been in control of their own destiny since the last Babylonian Empire, circa 7th to 6th Centuries BCE. Since then they have been conquered by the Romans, Persians, Alexander the Great, Mongols, and the Ottoman and British Empires. After the creation of an independent kingdom in 1932, the land dropped its ancient name. It became known by its ancient endonym "Iraq." In 1958, it became the Republic of Iraq. Independence did not change matters for Iraq. Iraq continued to be a land of turmoil with military coups, revolutions, and assassinations. Since before the birth of Christ to the present, Iraq has known only one brief period in which it controlled its own destiny with an independent government of its own that was relatively stable. You guessed it ... the Saddam Hussein regime.
Back to my dear friend who started this whole mess. He had a great idea, but not, perhaps, very realistic. His endearing thought was that we lied our way into this war, we ought to be able to lie our way out of it. While not very likely, let's hypothesize [dream] for just a moment. Within a year, say, the U.S. proclaims victory, and we withdraw all of our troops from Iraq. There are, of course, a few factors to consider, despite the appeal of such a decision. We will be leaving behind a weak, nascent government in Baghdad. Iraq and Iran have under their sandy soil the 2nd and 3rd largest known oil reserves in the world. Who is the most likely suspect to fill the void of power left by the U.S. in Iraq? The disturbing answer is Iran. Shiite Iran could "assist" the weak Shiite Iraqi government. There is a natural empathy between the two. There are serious doubts Washington will accept Iran's unnerving influence on Iraqi affairs. Israel certainly will not. Sadly, my friend's idea could cause a Mideast holocaust, or worse.
When and how will we ever leave Iraq? Upon further reflection, I do not feel bad not knowing the answer to that crucial question. There are others who do not know, either, and they are slightly more prominent. President Obama does not know the answer, nor does Hillary Clinton, Robert Gates, nor anyone in the Pentagon, nor any other self-defined experts on the issue.
The Af/Pak theater of operations? I don't even want to go there.
1 | 2
