Threats of War Against Iran Continue to Escalate

Iran insists its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only and insists on its right, guaranteed under the NPT, to enrich uranium for fuel in its nuclear energy program, and has called UN resolutions implementing sanctions and calling on Iran to cease uranium enrichment "illegal". Indeed, the NPT states that nothing may prejudice members' rights to continue with research and development, including uranium enrichment, while IAEA inspections and monitoring and verification efforts are underway.

IAEA Secretary General Mohamed El Baradei spoke out against the threats of force, noting that "With unilateral military actions, countries are undermining international agreements". He criticized Israel's destruction of what is alleged to have been a nuclear facility under construction in Syria in September of last year, saying that Israel and the US should have brought their intelligence to the UN to be dealt with through the Security Council, rather than taking unilateral military action, in accordance with their obligations under the UN Charter and international law.

Last month, Mr. El Baradei said, "We haven't seen indications or any concrete evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon and I've been saying that consistently for the last five years." The most recent report on Iran's program from the IAEA, released the week after Mr. El Baradei's above statement, noted that "The Agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran." The IAEA's previous report had noted significant progress in verifying the peaceful nature of Iran's program and concluded that several areas where there had been concern we no longer outstanding.

Iran responded to Israel's threat by noting, correctly, that "Such a dangerous threat against a sovereign state and a member of the United Nations constitutes a manifest violation of international law and contravenes the most fundamental principles of the Charter of the United Nations", and requested a response from the UN.

Israel is the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East. Although it has never officially acknowledged that it has nuclear weapons, it is believed to possess at least several hundred of them. Unlike Iran, Israel has never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

In addition to bombing the site in Syria, Israel also bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, and action which U.S. intelligence believed resulted in Saddam Hussein's nuclear program going underground and precipitated an increased desire for Iraq to try to obtain a nuclear weapon.

A CIA intelligence assessment of that attack said it "could be a watershed event in the Middle East". It said that "Rather than drawing [Arab leaders] into a negotiating process, Israel's demonstrated process will only speed the arms race. Tel Aviv has made the point that it will not allow an Arab state to develop a nuclear weapons capability. In the absence of US restraint on Israel, Arab leaders will intensify their search for alternative ways to boost their security and protect their interests..."

"The nuclear issue alone has far-reaching implications," the report continued. "Development of a nuclear weapons option is now part of the public debate in the Middle East. Former Defense Minister Dayan has dispelled the ambiguity that surrounded Israel's nuclear program by acknowledging Israel's capability to produce nuclear weapons, and the raid on Iraq has led Tel Aviv's challenge before the Arab world in clear terms. Iraq's President Saddam Hussein responded by suggesting that world governments provide the Arabs with a nuclear deterrent to Israel's formidable nuclear capabilities. His message to other Arabs is that they can have no security as long as Israel alone commands the nuclear threat."

The consequences of Israel's attack "have been along predictable lines," said the CIA, including "damage to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and to the IAEA safeguards system", which "will probably have a detrimental impact."

"Arab anger," the report added, "will be directed at the United States for being responsible for Israel's ascendancy.... Arab leaders will claim even more forcefully than before that Israeli aggression and frustrated Palestinian aspirations are the central issues causing instability and that the United States holds the key to both."

The threat to Iran this week coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's trip to Washington, where he met with President Bush to discuss the matter of Iran. The meeting was expected to be about the possibility of using military force in response to Iran's nuclear program.

According to the Washington Post, "Olmert is expected to use his White House visit...to push President Bush to take a more aggressive approach toward Iran -- and there are some signs that he'll have a receptive audience." According to a report in the Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth, Olmert would try to convince Bush of the need to attack Iran. Olmert had said that there was an "urgent need for more drastic and robust measures" than sanctions. The Israeli paper Haaretz said that "Olmert will try to convince Bush to set aside the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program in favor of data presented by Israel, and determine the administration's policy on Iran accordingly." This was confirmed by White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, who said, "Israel has made it clear that they think...that intelligence is wrong, and that Iran is still pursuing a nuclear weapon."

Bush declared Iran to be "an existential threat to peace." Asked whether the US would sanction military strikes against Iran, Bush responded that he "would never take any options off the table". Bush has also suggested that the Israeli bombing of the alleged Syrian nuclear site was a "message to Iran".

Olmert came away from the meeting saying that he had "fewer questions" about how to deal with Iran, and that "every day we are making real strides towards dealing with this problem more effectively." He said, "The international community has a duty and responsibility to clarify to Iran, through drastic measure, that the repercussions of their continued pursuit of nuclear weapons will be devastating. Israel will not tolerate the possibility of a nuclear Iran, and neither should any other country in the free world."

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