The Smart Progressive's Guide to Election Night

The same is even more true in New Mexico, a state that Bush stole in 2004 even more certainly than he stole Ohio. While the commentators will use W’s miniscule official victory margin there to describe it as a “red state that might turn blue,” it is for all practical purposes a blue state this year, with Obama leading by 7-17% in recent polls. There, too, most of the voters have already voted.

Only if McCain wins all eight of the 8-at-8 states is he pretty well assured of the White House. Even then, scenarios can be constructed where he loses, and they don’t require Obama to win any states where he’s a long way behind. However, this do require Obama to win McCain’s home state of Arizona, currently about a 4-point lead for McCain. I don’t realistically see Obama blowing all of the 8-at-8 states, in some of which he has a significant lead, and then turning around and magically stealing his opponent’s home state where he’s behind. Not all mathematically possible scenarios are plausible.

In other words, of the 8-at-8 swing states, Obama needs 1 or 2 out of 8; McCain needs 7 or 8 out of 8.

The states whose polls close later than 8:00 Eastern

(New York and Rhode Island, not pictured, also close later and are very blue)

Now here’s the deal. In most polls Obama leads McCain in five of the 8-at-8, including all of the three biggest and most important ones, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. McCain only leads one (Georgia); the other two (Indiana and Missouri) are pretty much toss-ups at this point, perhaps barely leaning to McCain. In three of the 8-at-8, Ohio, Virginia, and especially Pennsylvania, Obama has a quite convincing lead, given how close we are to the election.

You get the picture. The 8-at-8 group leans, overall, heavily towards Obama, but McCain needs to win almost all of it. This is why even the dimwitted folks called T.V. pundits generally recognize that McCain’s chances are not looking good right now!

But wait a minute, you may ask me. If I’m aware of the recent past history of electoral (not voter) fraud, how can I be so blasé about all this? Why should we trust pre-election polls when the election may be stolen?

Tune in to tomorrow’s thrilling episode, “Do Polls Mean Anything in an Age of Fraud?”, where I will discuss this very issue.

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