Nuclear Postures
The reality, however, is that Russian nuclear doctrine does not allow for such a scenario. Indeed, there are only two conditions where Russian nuclear doctrine permits the employment of nuclear weapons.
No 1. "In response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies," the 2020 Russian Nuclear Posture document states, or
No 2. "in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy."
U.S. nuclear posture, however, does allow it.
"The United States will maintain the range of flexible nuclear capabilities," the 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) declared, "needed to ensure that nuclear or non-nuclear aggression against the United States, allies, and partners, will fail to achieve its objectives and carry with it the credible risk of intolerable consequences for potential adversaries now and in the future."
It should be noted that the 2018 NPR was promulgated during the administration of President Donald Trump. Although the Biden administration initiated the NPR process in September 2021, it has yet to publish an updated document.
By ignoring stated Russian nuclear policy, and instead mirror-imaging U.S. nuclear policy onto Russian behavior, the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine, are setting themselves, and the world, up for disaster.
Indeed, using a hypothetical Russian tactical nuclear attack on Ukraine as a working assumption, the Biden administration has developed a range of non-nuclear options in response, including, according to Newsweek, a "decapitation" strike targeting Russian leadership, to include President Vladimir Putin.
According to Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden's national security adviser, the White House has "communicated directly, privately, to the Russians at very high levels that there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine."
Sullivan noted that the Biden administration has "spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean" in its communications with the Kremlin. Just to be clear: the White House has communicated to Russia its intent to respond in a non-nuclear manner to any potential Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine.
Andrey Gurulyov
Enter Andrey Gurulyov (@ 9:12 minutes), a former Russian general officer, and current member of the Russian Duma.
Gurulyov is from the Russia United Party (Putin's party), and is said to be closely connected to the senior Russian leadership. He gave me a wide-ranging interview on the Sept. 29 edition of my "Scott Ritter Show" (a joint effort with Russian producers of "Solovyov Live" featuring the well-known Russian commentator Vladimir Solovyov). We discussed the future of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine in the aftermath of the referenda and partial mobilization.
Gurulyov indicated that given the reality that the Ukrainian military was operating as a de facto proxy of NATO, the "demilitarization" task set forth by Putin in invading Ukraine now meant the complete destruction of the Ukrainian military.
Likewise, given that the Russian government has labelled the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a Nazi regime, "denazification" would require regime change in Kiev and Russian troops advancing up to the western reaches of Ukraine that border NATO itself.
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