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The Link Between Global Warming and Mega-Quakes - Reprise

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Why is this so important? Let's start with Fukushima. Two-thirds of all the nuclear reactors on this planet are built at sea level. There are 67 in the USA, with four more being built, at sea level. They are all vulnerable to rising sea levels most certainly, but they are also vulnerable to tsunamis. The total radiation release into the environment from Fukushima has been larger than that from Chernobyl. Multiply that by hundreds worldwide and you begin to see the threat.

I have studied the geology texts at length, and no one has a plausible theory that explains mega-quakes. In fact, no one has been able to predict the size, location, and frequency of earthquakes in the entire history of the field. Well, it looks like I am the first to predict when, how frequent, and how large, if not where. Maybe somebody smarter than I can come along and predict where they will occur.

The 17 largest quakes ever measured were all along the Pacific Rim, or "The Ring of Fire". Well, that's a good guess that zeroes in on about 5% of the world's surface area. The DC quake does not fall into that zone, nor the quake that recently struck in Italy. Neither were mega-quakes, but they were very large as compared to what had come before to those areas.

There is a 15% probability of a mega-quake measuring 8.5 or higher before October 21, 2012 and another 70% chance between February 21 and April 21, 2013. I cannot tell you where because our geologist friends have no model that predicts anything at all. I can only tell you with 95% level of confidence that at least one mega-quake will happen each year, as opposed to an average of one per decade before global warming due to CO2 began in earnest. I can also tell you that earthquakes do not cause global warming, as some have been confused by the cause and effect issue. Global warming is causing these mega-quakes with much greater frequency and at predicted times.

When we design tall structures, like skyscrapers and smokestacks and large wind turbines  and solar power towers, as well as siting nuclear power plants and petroleum facilities, we look at the seismic history and fault lines under proposed sites. We design for the maximum potential quake that has ever occurred in about a thousand years, and add a factor of safety on top of that number. I've done this twice, and it's one of the most difficult engineering tasks for any major project. Engineers are far more practical than scientists. They build stuff that people must live with.

On the other hand, politicians make decisions which impact the entire human race. Maybe it's time to let them know that they are killing us with their ignorance.


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Designed first all-solar home for Ryland Homes in 1974. At MITRE, led a group of 35 of the best minds in the world (including Dr. Edward Teller, among others) who performed detailed engineering, scientific, socio-economic, and political analyses of (more...)
 

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It's only been a year since I began this investiga... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 10:58:14 AM
Here is a link to the full resolution data:http://... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 11:51:44 AM
There was a server error at Comcast. The correct l... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:29:17 PM
Paul, living on Vancouver Island this is a tr... by Jim Baird on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 12:40:42 PM
The solutions we have worked to achieve may find g... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:07:01 PM
  There are actually some native tribes ... by Theresa Paulfranz on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 12:48:20 PM
Your comment is indeed true, in that so many choos... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 1:11:00 PM
    After much discussion and revie... by Robert Porreca on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 2:18:14 PM
Your comment makes unwarranted assertions about th... by Paul from Potomac on Friday, Aug 24, 2012 at 3:12:30 PM
Good points Robert. I am highly skeptical. First o... by John Moffett on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 7:56:28 AM
The tectonic plates float on magma, as you say, an... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:09:18 PM
John, The last time I looked the USGS was ave... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:49:31 PM
Your assertion is incorrect.USGS has only measured... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:49:08 PM
That's what the USGS (the experts) says Paul-avera... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 3:55:51 PM
There were 6 mega-quakes since 1973, over 8.4, all... by Paul from Potomac on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 6:22:17 PM
Ice melt may indeed have an influence on crustal m... by Paul Repstock on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 2:37:45 PM
Paul, I like your order of magnitude analysis, and... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:20:02 PM
The author has demonstrated no correlation between... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 3:46:53 PM
Robert, I studied the geological literature and th... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:32:31 PM
In the interest of fairness, let me say my objecti... by Robert Porreca on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 4:04:46 PM
I'll be glad to answer that charge, Robert. W... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:40:38 PM
I had hoped to hear from responsible scientists an... by Paul from Potomac on Saturday, Aug 25, 2012 at 5:53:10 PM
The geologists don't reply to postings on the inte... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 3:59:19 PM
The author makes a simple mistake: The seasonal me... by Thomas Anonymous on Sunday, Aug 26, 2012 at 12:29:40 AM
Thomas, I'm glad to have the opportunity to hear y... by Paul from Potomac on Sunday, Aug 26, 2012 at 1:47:41 PM
During the ice ages the sea level was much lower N... by Thomas Anonymous on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 5:15:40 AM
Sorry for the bait on Archimedes. I was not certai... by Paul from Potomac on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 12:47:57 PM
Thanks, yes it seems that the stats are a fluke on... by Thomas Anonymous on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 1:33:36 PM
Arguing with Paul is like banging your head on met... by Robert Porreca on Monday, Aug 27, 2012 at 4:06:44 PM