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The Coming Attack on Iran: A Perfect Storm of Madness
By Bernard Weiner (about the author) Page 2 of 3 page(s)
ILLUSION OF POSITIVE "LEGACY"
And yet, even given that negative situation, I think Cheney and Bush are still salivating at the prospects of attacking Iran as a last spastic use of the power they've amassed for themselves. In addition, perhaps Cheney and Bush just might go for it in a final desperate attempt to establish their "legacy": They believe that eventually all Americans, and others, will realize that during their tenure they courageously and correctly began the process of bringing democracy and free-market capitalism to the "backward" Islamic countries in the Greater Middle East, even if at the point of a gun.
But what if the U.S. rulers miscalculate once again, a la Iraq -- some leading neocons blithely assume that the young, anti-mullah population of Iran will rise up following an attack and overthrow their religious rulers -- and the U.S. gets sucked into a no-win quagmire all over the Middle East? What then? Maybe CheneyBush don't give a rat's petunia; in the long run, as the solipsistic Bush has said about his "legacy," he'll be dead.
To gain their war, CheneyBush (along with Israel) are threatening and trying to provoke Iran into making a bad blunder in response that could be interpreted as a "hostile" act, requiring a retaliatory strike. According to Seymour Hersh, a former high-placed intelligence officer said that a secret meeting took place in Cheney's office where "the subject was how to create a casus belli between Tehran and Washington." ( www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh )
At best, in Bush&Co. calculations, an air attack using "surgical" bombing runs and laser-guided missile attacks would quickly take out Iran's military/nuclear facilities, perhaps in a day or two, with little civilian "collateral" damage.
At worst, regardless of whether it's Israel or the U.S. initiating the attack, the result could lead to uncontrollable chaos and destruction -- and an oil-supply system badly wrecked, with all that implies for the economies of the U.S. and Europe -- and the clash of cultures that so many extremists, on both sides, seem almost to desire. (The U.N.'s chief nuclear official, Mohammed ElBaradei, said an attack on Iran would turn the region in a "ball of fire.") ( www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25298744 ) And the new President would be stuck with the catastrophe.
HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO WAR?
So how close are we to war against Iran? Former CIA official Ray McGovern ( www.consortiumnews.com/2008/061908c.html ) reports that upon emerging from a 90-minute White House meeting with President George W. Bush on June 4, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the two leaders were of one mind:
>> "'We reached agreement on the need to take care of the Iranian threat. I left with a lot less question marks [than] I had entered with regarding the means, the timetable restrictions, and American resoluteness to deal with the problem. George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it, and intends to act on that matter before the end of his term in the White House."
McGovern also quotes a member of Olmert's delegation saying that the two countries had agreed to cooperate in case of an attack by Iran, and that "the meetings focused on 'operational matters' pertaining to the Iranian threat."
My best guess right now is that CheneyBush, as always divorced from the real world, will go for an attack probably later this summer, or, if not then, between the November election and the inauguration of a new President in January. Whether CheneyBush will do so with the U.S. playing the central role is unknown at this time. My guess is that the U.S. will be helpful to Israel in getting them to do the deed. (Remember that Israel bombed Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981.) Already, a huge number of America's military brass, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, have recently had mostly secret consultations with their Israeli counterparts. ( www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1214492515999&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull )
Neo-con Bill Kristol ( http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/22/kristol-bush-iran ) even suggests that if Bush thinks Obama is poised to win the presidency, he'll launch the attack either just prior to or right after the November election. In other words, better vote for McCain if you want to stop a widening war in the Greater Middle East. Political extortion of the first order.
BUILDING OF A "PERFECT STORM"
I would be happy to be proven wrong in all my speculations and to learn that what's happening in the Persian Gulf area is merely (!) a dangerous game of "chicken." If the latter, then someone with rational sense will veer away from the confrontation before it's too late and the region is plunged into full and total economic and military conflagration, with the spillover effect of a potential worldwide economic Depression and wars of choice throughout the region. In short, mixed in with an already-proceeding environmental collapse brought on by human-accelerated global warming, it's clear, as Hemingway might say, that there's a cataclysmic shitstorm coming. A perfect storm with untold, horrific consequences.
Finally, with Iran in the crosshairs, you would think that both Congress and the mainstream media would feel obliged to start paying some major investigative attention to the likelihood of such an attack, so that we won't wind up once again falling into war without a proper and lengthy debate about the wisdom of such a move. But once again, as was the case with the runup to the war against Iraq, Congress, this time controlled by the Democrats, remains inert and the corporate media remain mostly silent or act as cheerleaders for CheneyBush policy.
Prior to the "shock&awe" bombing of Iraq, those opposed to the coming attack put ten million dissenters into the streets around the globe. In contrast, today's so-called "antiwar movement" in the U.S. and elsewhere seems dormant in the face of the coming conflagration, with a lot of energy now siphoned off to the presidential campaign.
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