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Respected journalist Ahmed Rashid noted that, "CIA chief William Casey committed CIA support to a long-standing ISI initiative to recruit radical Muslims from around the world to come to Pakistan and fight with the Afghan Mujahideen." A prime recruiting area was the sparsely populated, conservative Muslim population in Pakistan's border provinces.
That cooperative effort became old news after September 1, 2001. U.S. policy toward Afghanistan went from funding the Taliban rulers to destroy poppy crops to evicting them supposedly as a first step in the search for bin Laden.
The turmoil in Afghanistan spread to the border regions of Pakistan. By 2008, new Taliban leadership emerged in Pakistan and the extremists were on the move. Pakistan's western provinces are lightly guarded by the Pakistani Frontier Corp. The Taliban's initial successes allowed them to show their unique style of governance:
"Militants unleashed a reign of terror, killing and beheading politicians, singers, soldiers and opponents. They banned female education and destroyed nearly 200 girls' schools" Reuters May 7, 2009.
The preoccupation of Pakistan's government with the Indian border resulted in the attempts to negotiate a peace which might simply calm the situation in the west. This was deemed unacceptable by the United States.
At the same time, United States ignored warnings from different factions that the ongoing drone attacks, in defiance of Pakistan's objections, were creating major problems for both the U.S. and Pakistan's new government which was seen as powerless to do anything but complain to U.S. officials.
Diplomatic incursion
Special advisor Holbrooke and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Mullen took a diplomatic road trip to Pakistan to make the case for more aggressive action by Pakistan's regular military in early April
What are the chances Pakistan could fall to the Taliban? If you listen to presidential advisor Richard Holbrooke, we are looking at another 9/11 unless Pakistan gets its act together. Mullen was equally strident in his concerns and criticisms of the Pakistanis.
Both officials had made public statements prior to the trip stating the danger to the United States by failure to act decisively against the Taliban. One of the charges was that Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, was in league with the Taliban and that the government was doing little or nothing to change things.
This created uproar in Pakistan's capitol. The head of the ISI refused to meet with Mullen and Holbrooke and the normally mild mannered foreign minister sat the two down for a "frank exchange." Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi summarized his meetings with this advice: "'We can only work together if we respect each other and trust each other. There is no other way and nothing else will work,’ he said rather bluntly" Dawn, Apr 9, 2009.
In an interview on National Public Radio on April 21, even Shuja Nawaz from the establishment oriented Atlantic Council was driven to exasperation when describing the Holbrooke - Mullen mission. "This is probably the worst-ever visit by an American team to South Asia in history. It was a complete disaster. And if this is how you want to win friends, I just wonder how you want to create enemies" NPR, Apr 21, 2009.
But lets return to the 9/11 card played by Richard Holbrooke. That's a very serious charge. It hinges on the likelihood of Pakistan falling to the Taliban
Here's how they match up?
Pakistan is a nation of 170 million people. It had an impressive run of economic growth until the recent economic crisis. It is the most urbanized nation in South Asia and has a large educated class. The Pakistani Army is a well armed force of 650,000 with a substantial reserve force. The Army has fought three major wars with India, has a modern command structure, and is held in a positive regard by citizens. It is the largest single contributor to UN peace keeping efforts.
The Pakistani Taliban consists of an estimated 35,000 to 50,000 members. Their funding may be from the opium trade with other sources hard to pin down. They promote a violent brand of Islam rejected by the vast majority of Pakistani citizens and they are not held in any regard other than fear due to their violent version of Islamic law.
