But there was more. A look at the poll shows that 1,101 registered voters were surveyed. The final poll consisted of 800 "likely voters" taken from that group. The registered voters divided up with 48% for Obama and 38% for McCain. The reduction of Obama support and increase for McCain indicates that McCain's voters are highly motivated to turnout while Obama's are more likely to stay home.
This contradicts the actual evidence available showing major gains in newly registered voters for Obama and huge advantages in primary turnout for Democrats compared Republicans. It's small crowds for McCain and record breaking gatherings for Obama around the country, including 35,000 in Leesburg, Virginia on Thursday Oct. 23.
In polling, the sample determines the outcome of a poll. If you bias the poll sample toward groups that are well known to support one party, then the poll will reflect that sample selection. In this case, AP, GfK did just that. They created a Republican friendly sample which displayed more motivation to vote because it started out Republican friendly.
The AP-GfK "Giveaway"
Within the details of the poll, there's a major clue that something is very wrong.
The likely voter sample was asked questions that are directly related to attacks and negative campaigning. Voters are consistent in decrying what they perceive as unfair attacks.
Note how they perceive each candidate's "attacks" during the campaign:
AP wants us to believe that the same sample that made these responses also showed lower than average support for Obama and higher for McCain even. A clear majority describe McCain and Palin as "mostly unfair" in their attacks on Obama. An equally clear majority of the sample say that the Obama and Biden attacks on McCain are "mostly fair."
Are They Preparing Us for a "Surprise?"
On a recent Larry King show, the anchors for the major networks were asked for a prediction on the presidential election. Brian Williams of NBC practically came out of his seat when he encouraged viewers to get up and "run" from anyone who tells you that they know how this election will come out. The other anchors echoed these sentiments.
This is the very worst type of news commentary. How could Williams know that a month or so ago? Why would the others just bob their heads? Are they preparing us for something "special?"
The analysis of the AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC "media consortium" final exit poll might provide a clue: Election 2004: The Urban Legend.
The past is prolog.
END
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