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Schizophrenic Nuclear Politics

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Iran’s package also took a comprehensive approach to regional security and foresaw a key role for Iran in future regional negotiations.

So what is the problem?

The problem has been that negotiations with the US and the Europeans have usually ended in a u-turn by the US as soon as the parties got close to agreement.

The last time Iran suspended its enrichment activities, the EU and the US reneged on their commitments in 2005. The US insisted on a permanent suspension of enrichment, and Iran withdrew its cooperation after a 2-year suspension period.

In early 2005, officials from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency studied the idea of placing an enrichment facility inside Iran, but the US blocked the idea.

In the same year, a proposal by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to end the standoff over Iran's nuclear program was also rejected by the Bush administration. The proposal argued for a dramatic shift in U.S. policy to help build an internationally run enrichment facility inside Iran to replace its current facilities rather than trying to halt Iran's efforts to enrich uranium.

So while the Iran-6 make much noise about a ‘lack of confidence’, the problem is actually as much the other way.

Speculation

Despite the fact that the Iran-6 have made some big concessions on paper, we have Bush and Browne threatening more sanctions and the Israelis threatening war.

What could explain this schizophrenia?

One possibility is that this is a tactic to undermine the process once again. They could be trying to provoke Iran into confrontation. This does not make sense other than in the case of Israel that is being heavily sidelined by this potential agreement. Could this also be the reason for Israel’s frantic peace-making with Hamas, Syria and perhaps also Hezbollah at this juncture?

Another likelihood is that the US and UK are trying to save face after years of confrontation when Iran is on the verge of being invited back into the fold. Whatever the outcome, Iran should not look like the winner in this. Rather, Iran should look like it capitulated while the Project for the New American Century is in full retreat.
 

Some relevant  IAEA Reports for those interested:

Report of June 2008

Report of November 2007

Report of September 2007

Report of November 2006        

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An average Iranian with a keen interest in international affairs.

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Iran Needs To Be Strong In Order To Be Respected by aberamsay on Sunday, Jun 22, 2008 at 9:07:01 PM
Lions? by Niloufar Parsi on Monday, Jun 23, 2008 at 5:20:46 PM
No Place At Negotiation Table For The Weak by aberamsay on Monday, Jun 23, 2008 at 10:33:18 PM
The beginning of the end by Deborah Wells on Monday, Jun 23, 2008 at 3:00:33 AM
Deborah by Niloufar Parsi on Monday, Jun 23, 2008 at 5:09:50 PM