Net New Democratic Primary Voters, White Shift Voters, and Newly Registered Voters Combined Form a Solid Defense Against Election Fraud
While the newly registered voters are subject to all the voter suppression strategies available, the 2.3 million new primary voters are not. They've voted, they're registered without any doubt, and they're not likely to be denied their vote. These new primary voters represent about 13% of the general election vote in the three states mentioned (assuming a 20% increase in voter turnout in 2008). That's not 13% of the Democratic vote. It's 13% of the entire estimated vote total.
The white shift voters are another major factor that will help reduce the potential for election fraud. As whites, they're not the target of race based voter suppression. Having paid enough attention to the campaign to consciously shift their allegiance, they seem likely to vote in large numbers. The white shift voting population moving to Obama represent nearly 1.0 million votes for the three states discussed (extrapolating from the Public Policy Polling numbers).
The only fraud strategy left to counter this is a massive manipulation of electronic voting machines and tabulators (which are often one and the same). The risk of committing electronic fraud for these states is extraordinary. Even a cursory examination of the reported totals would produce a variety of contradictions that would unravel the crime.
According to three recent national polls, terrorism is the most important issue for 8% and 10% of registered voters nationwide, while the same polls show that the economy is the top campaign issue for 48% to 57% of registered voters. Osama bin Laden would need to do a whirlwind tour of Virginia and North Carolina endorsing Obama to generate a McCain-Palin win.
Given these numbers and others from around the country, Sen. McCain might be thinking of the hypothetical posed by the former governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards (D). Remarking on his 1983 race for governor, Edwards said that the only way he could lose would be if he were "caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy." That's not likely this year.
A victory based, in part, on white shift in just Virginia and North Carolina would be an irony of major proportions. In 2004, two questionable results raised serious questions about the notion of a Bush victory. The 2004 "red shift" in the swing states was based on last minute shifts by white voters. The fictitious 4.0 million new white voters in "big cities" (from the media consortium's final exit poll) were the second factor. These "white ghosts" were confabulated by the media consortium's unbelievable and incorrect exit polling result that showed "big city" turnout up 66% for 2004. In fact, turnout was up between 12% to 15 % - ( See Chart 1).
We're now facing a shift of major proportions in consistently Republican states in the South coming from white conservative males fed up with the poor economy and the direction of the nation along with "net new" primary voters in the Democratic Party primaries.
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