after all provisional and absentee ballots are counted (and if the
uncounted ballots are more than the margin contest the eligibility of
those ballots) before naming the winning candidate.
This situation (more provisional and absentee ballots than the
unofficial margin) could possibly occur in several swing states,
including Ohio, Florida, and Colorado - in any state that is
particularly close.
An estimate could be done now to determine which states are more
likely to be impossible to call the winners on Election Night by doing
open records requests to determine the number of voter roll purges and
absentee ballots mailed out and received as compared to the opinion
poll margins and expected turnout for each state. (I don't have the
data or resources to do this estimate myself now, but it is easy
enough to do.)
The 2008 election is the first election since the passage of the 2002
Help America Vote Act where all States are now purging their e-voter
rolls and in which more states than ever now allow no-fault absentee
voting, so there *will be more absentee and provisional ballots than
in any election in U.S. history*.
Candidates and press will want to determine whether or not the number
of uncounted provisional and absentee ballots exceeds the reported
margins state-wide for all close election contests before calling the
winners.
This waiting period before calling the contests in some swing states
would also provide time for election integrity advocates with the help
of attorneys to make open records requests for detailed vote count
data and election records that can be mathematically analyzed to
detect any patterns that are consistent with possible machine vote
miscount.
With the number of provisional ballots possibly exceeding margins of
victory nowadays for the first time in U.S. history, and with the
machine vote counts in virtually all states not being subjected to
independent scientific post-election manual audits, it is vital for
candidates and the press to wait for sufficient information before
calling winners in any close State contests.
See http://kathydopp.com/serendipity/ for lists of news articles on
the amount of e-voter roll purges and the use of provisional ballots.
Please forward this email to press and to candidates' campaigns for
their consideration.
Thank you.
--
Kathy Dopp
The material expressed herein is the informed product of the author's
fact-finding and investigative efforts. Dopp is a Mathematician,
Expert in election audit mathematics and procedures; in exit poll
discrepancy analysis; and can be reached at
P.O. Box 680192
Park City, UT 84068
phone 435-658-4657
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