It is my view that approximately twenty-five percent of the voting population is insane. I do not exaggerate when I say that, and I do not use this analogy to make any comparison with Miller, but this insane element of our population would, without hesitation, vote for Adolph Hitler. Miller will carry these nutcases without a problem. But he needs more than twenty-five percent.
I was given a tip about a truly good analysis of the situation. It is a chalk-board presentation by Tom Begich, the very engaging brother of Mark Begich. The Begich family is truly savvy about Alaska politics, which is in their blood. Shannyn Moore, who is among Alaska's best and brightest, not to mention delightfully droll and fun, does a program known as "Moore Up North," and she had Tom Begich explain why it is all but certain that Scott McAdams is going to win.
Firedog Lake's streaming video runs just over fourteen minutes, and I urge you to watch it. What Tom Begich explains is that even better-known and better-liked candidates than Lisa Murkowski have failed with write-in campaigns in Alaska. While Murkowski got a break with a court ruling that lists of write-in candidates can be posted in the voting areas, still write-ins are all but impossible. The biggest problem: Even when voters write in the name, they often forget to fill in the bubble beside the name, which is considered to be the vote. Given the best estimate of the turnout for this race, 316,000 voters, if McAdams can merely do as badly as the worst statewide Democrat in Alaska history, and get 31 percent of the vote, he will still win. Because he is so close, it is a compelling argument by one of the best-informed election professionals in Alaska.
If I wagered on elections, this one would be a good bet, for I think the odds-makers have this longshot very wrong. Lisa Murkowski is not going to win, and Joe Miller fits perfectly into the mold of the authoritarian conservative, and those who fit that type are all a bit scary. Alaska is an awesome place, and the state's people deserve the kind of solid citizen and leader that Scott McAdams will be when elected.(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
