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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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2. Obama's (2-party) 59% share of new voters is equal to his 2008 exit poll share. He had 73% of new voters (2-party) in 2008.

There are two sets of scenarios:

1) 2012 Vote shares

Base Case: Obama has 92% of Obama and 5% of McCain voters.

(3% net defection of returning Obama voters for Romney).

2) Returning 2008 Voter turnout

Base case: Equal 92% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.

Base Case: Obama wins by 16 million votes with a 56.4% (two-party) share.

I. 2012 Vote shares: Worst case scenario

Obama has 88% of returning Obama and 1% of returning McCain (net 11% defection advantage to Romney).

Result: Obama has 52.8% (2-party) and wins by 7 million votes.

II. 2008 Voter turnout: Worst case scenario

77% of living Obama voters and 100% of McCain voters turn out.

Result: Obama has 51.8% (two-party) and wins by 4.5 million votes.

This scenario matches the recorded vote.

Late Vote Share vs. Election Day Share

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I have Master's degrees in Applied Mathematics and Operations Research and began my career as a Numerical Control Manufacturing Engineeer for a major Defense/Aerospace manufacturer. I was employed in the Corporate Finance Division of several major (more...)

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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Just like in 2000, 2004, and 2008, the Democrat ... by Richard Charnin on Wednesday, Nov 28, 2012 at 1:34:43 AM
Great article and site!... by Andrew Schettino on Wednesday, Nov 28, 2012 at 8:10:29 AM