http://cbs4.com/local/NASA.moon.apollo.2.1462701.html
The newest "footnote", dated April 2009, said:
"2009-Apr-29: This animation illustrates how the unmeasured physical parameters of Apophis bias the entire statistical uncertainty region. If Apophis is a RETROGRADE rotator on the small, less-massive end of what is possible, the measurement uncertainty region will get pushed back such that the center of the distribution encounters the Earth's orbit. This would result in an impact probability much higher than computed with the Standard Dynamical Model. Conversely, if Apophis is a small, less-massive PROGRADE rotator, the uncertainty region is advanced along the orbit. Only the remote tails of the probability distribution could encounter the Earth, producing a negligible impact probability. Although measurements in 2010-2011 may cut the size of the measurement uncertainty region greatly and result in an "all clear" using the Standard Dynamical Model, it may not be until Arecibo radar in 2013 provides a spin direction that Earth's passage through the probability distribution center can be ruled out."
Read the last line of that NOTE again:
"Although measurements in 2010-2011 may cut the size of the measurement uncertainty region greatly and result in an "all clear" using the Standard Dynamical Model, it may not be until Arecibo radar in 2013 provides a spin direction that Earth's passage through the probability distribution center can be ruled out."
Let me see. Let us imagine that in 2013, we discover Russia's worries were correct and NASA's 2007-2008 study is way off. The world may be up the proverbial creek.
Currently, following the last Shuttle launch this year or in 2011, America's NASA will have no planned man missions to space using any replacement shuttle or launcher until at least the end of this decade.
click here
In conclusion, I sure hope that NASA was right three or more years ago when it decided to pooh-pooh any worries about an asteroid hitting earth in my lifetime. However, what if a new footnote in 2013 increases American worries again?
If NASA is shown to be wrong in 2013, i.e. after much data is available as the asteroid becomes more visible, then I pray that Russia will have continued to take this asteroid issue seriously.
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