"Review of the constitutional order and the legal system
"Free and fair multi-party elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established."
As you can see, Geneva does not resolve the central issue, which is: "Does Assad stay or go?" That question is not answered definitively. It all depends on composition of the "transitional governing body" and the outcome of future elections.
Clearly, this is the result that Putin wanted. Here's how Lavrov summed it up two days ago:
"I have already said, Russia and Saudi Arabia support all principles of the June 30, 2012 Geneva communique, in particular, the need to preserve government institutions, including the Syrian army. I believe its participation in the effective struggle against terrorists is truly essential.
"I have already said that though we hold identical positions on the settlement of the crisis, we also have our differences, and one of them concerns the destiny of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. We believe that all issues of settlement, including the parameters of the transitional period and political reforms, should be resolved by Syrians themselves. The Geneva communique reads that these issues should be resolved by consensus between the Government and the entire spectrum of opposition forces."
You can see by this statement what Putin really wants. He wants to "preserve government institutions, including the Syrian army" to avoid another Iraq-type nightmare scenario. (Note: Remember what happened to Iraq after Bremer disbanded the army.) What he doesn't want, is to create a power-vacuum that leads to another failed, balkanized hellhole that serves as a breeding ground for terrorists that will eventually come knocking on Moscow's door. He doesn't want that at all. That only serves Washington's objectives, not Russia's.
Also, the whole idea of a "transitional governing body" and "free and fair multi-party elections" gives Putin a way to back away from Assad without looking like he's throwing him under the bus.
Some will probably criticize this and say that Putin is "selling out a friend and ally," but that's not entirely true. He's trying to balance two opposing things at the same time. He's trying to maintain his commitment to an ally while accommodating Saudi Arabia so they agree to help him to end the hostilities. So, yes, there is a bit of triangulation involved, but what choice does he have? In practical terms, he can either strike a deal fast or allow the window of opportunity to slam shut.
Why?
Because Washington doesn't want a deal. Washington wants war. Washington cannot achieve its goal of breaking up Syria and redrawing the map of the Middle East if peacemaker Putin prevails. Let's put it this way: If Putin gets Saudi Arabia on board, then a good portion of the funding for jihadi groups will dry up, the Syrian Army, assisted by Iraqi and Kurdish forces, will have greater success on the battlefield, and ISIS will be annihilated.
How does that serve Washington's interests?
It doesn't. And even if Assad is removed, the process (Geneva) is such that the next president is not going to be a hand-picked US stooge, but someone who is supported by the majority of the Syrian people. Needless to say, Washington doesn't like that idea.
The only glitch to the plan is that Putin must move very fast. The US has already gotten the green-light from Ankara to launch its drone attacks and bombing raids from Incirlik air base in Turkey, which means the conflict is going to intensify in the weeks and months to come. Also, Turkey's hardline President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be using the US aerial attacks as cover for stealing Syrian sovereign territory in the North and declaring it a "safe zone." Get a load of this clip from an August 11 article in the International Business Times:
"A group of ethnic Turkmen fighters arrived in Azaz, Syria, on Monday afternoon to launch the first phase of a joint U.S.-Turkish initiative to establish an Islamic State group-free 'safe zone' in the country, two soldiers fighting in northern Syria told International Business Times via Skype. Tanks carrying the fighters entered through the Bab al-Salama border, crossing from southeastern Turkey into the town of Azaz, Syria, setting off a wave of attacks by the Islamic State militant group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in the town of Marea, which forced the al-Qaeda extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra to retreat.
"'At first everyone thought the tanks were filled with Turkish soldiers, but it was the Turkmen,' one of the rebel fighters said.
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