Iran, the "silent war," heats up

Both the Israeli and U.S. government believe that Iran could have nuclear weapons within the next 6 years. Haaretz, a leading Israeli newspaper wrote that Mossad head Meir Dagan reported to the Israeli Parliament in June 2009 that Iran will have its first bomb by 2014. But despite this public report, most Israeli officials believe Iran could have a bomb more quickly. U.S. officials estimate Iran could produce a nuclear weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015 with the latter date being more likely. Israel has shown reluctance to wait to find out how long, if ever, it may take. According to the Times, Israel approached President Bush and sought "bunker-busting bombs, refueling capability and overflight rights over Iraq, in case it moved to strike Iran's facilities." Bush refused the requests.

According to the Times piece, "Israeli officials say privately that the Obama administration is deluding itself in thinking that diplomacy will persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program". At a meeting with a senior Obama administration official several months ago, Israeli officials pressed for intelligence and other help that would be necessary for a strike, according to one official with knowledge of the exchange." The Times did not report what answer the Israelis received.

It is unlikely that the Israelis would ever attack Iran without first getting a green light from the U.S. But the possibility of that green light being given should not be dismissed. But one reason it may never be given is that it is not likely Israel has the military capability to destroy Iran's nuclear program with certainty. The program is widely dispersed and would require multiple attacks. Only the U.S. possibly has that military potential.

Tomorrow May Be Too Late to Act

It appears at this time that the U.S. will use non-military means to achieve it immediate goals regarding Iran's nuclear program. But these means are not mutually exclusive. Propaganda, diplomacy, and sanctions can all be used as a buildup to the use of military means. Keep in mind that all three were used in the buildup to the invasion of Iraq. The Obama administration can argue that it used other means to get the Iranians to give in, but when that failed it had no other means to achieve its goal of deterring Iran from obtaining nukes. This argument has been used often before as a prelude to war.

Some would also argue that the U.S. can not attack Iran at this time because it is bogged down in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. But if the U.S. were to launch a military attack on Iran in the near future, it will not take the same form as the invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan. It will not be a land offensive by U.S. forces.It would likely come via the air. The U.S. has bombers within the continental U.S. that can fly to Iran and drop their deadly loads.It has missiles that can also be launched far from Iranian territory. It has naval forces in the Persian Gulf and other waters capable of launching devastating attacks. The U.S. also has special operations forces capable of land attacks, such as sabotage. It further has enough ground forces to seize oilfields within Iran. Of course none of this capability guarantees success for any U.S. attack. Nor does it mean that such an attack is imminent. But it does mean that we should not expect that a long buildup to a war against Iran would be necessary like it was preceding the invasion of Iraq. It also means that we should not be lulled into forgetting that Iran has been in the sites of U.S. imperialism for decades.

We need to be vigilant. But even if war is not on the immediate horizon, we should also remember that the U.S. is using its other weapons right now and we can not afford to let this go unchallenged. Sanctions also kill. A million Iraqi children died as a result of sanctions begun by Bush 1, continued by Democrat Bill Clinton, and then by Bush 2. Also the U.S. does not call all the shots. If the sanction of a gasoline cutoff is implemented, we do not know what the Iranian regime may do. The U.S. could push Iran to such an extent that Iran may "fire the first shot."But regardless of who fires first, we must oppose the actions of our government.

The Iranian people deserve to be free of their oppressors in the Iranian regime, but they will free themselves. We already know what happens when the U.S. invades from the tragedies that have occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq. Because of this we can not afford to wait until war is imminent.We must expose and oppose all U.S. moves that make war more likely or even those that continue to oppress the Iranian people such as sanctions.

Tomorrow may be too late to act.

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